Agony of Sorrow

Europe’s Shift Towards Strategic Autonomy: A Risky Path?

Europe has now realized that it cannot fully rely on the United States, which marks an important shift. However, their current strategy presents several issues and could even lead to greater internal conflicts and long-term crises.

1. Continued Confrontation with Russia: More Harm Than Good for Europe

Russia was once a crucial energy supplier to Europe. In the past, countries like Germany and France tried to balance security concerns with economic interests.
However, by fully aligning with the U.S. stance against Russia, Europe has severed its energy supply chain, causing soaring energy prices and weakening its industrial competitiveness—particularly in Germany.
More importantly, Russia has not collapsed under Western sanctions. Instead, it has strengthened its cooperation with China, India, and the Middle East, further disadvantaging Europe in terms of geopolitical strategy.

2. Defense Autonomy vs. Rising Military Expenditure: A Threat to Social Welfare

Europe indeed needs to strengthen its military independence, as long-term reliance on NATO, led by the U.S., does not align with its own interests.
However, the rapid increase in military spending—such as Germany’s commitment to reaching 2% of its GDP—will directly cut into social welfare budgets. Europe's welfare state system is built on high taxation and high public spending, so this shift could provoke further public discontent.
With rising inflation and unemployment, this situation may fuel the rise of extremist political parties, both left-wing and right-wing, exacerbating social instability.

3. Growing Internal Divisions in the EU: A Path to Fragmentation?

France and Germany aspire to lead Europe’s strategic autonomy, but Eastern European countries—such as Poland and the Baltic states—are firmly aligned with the U.S. This creates fractures within the EU’s military and foreign policy.
Debt concerns: Southern European nations like Italy and Spain are not particularly interested in increased military spending; their focus remains on economic issues and immigration.
If these internal conflicts cannot be balanced, the EU may face further fragmentation, weakening its overall influence. This raises the possibility of a future where the EU weakens while NATO strengthens.

Europe’s Future: A Potential Path to Greater Crisis

If Europe does not adjust its strategy and instead continues to confront Russia, increase military spending, and deepen internal divisions, it may face the following consequences:

• Economic decline (industrial relocation, decreased business competitiveness)
• Social unrest (cuts in welfare programs, widening wealth gap, increased protests)
• Political extremism (rise of radical left- or right-wing movements, unstable governments)
• EU fragmentation (growing internal disagreements, potential exits from the bloc)

If Europe truly wants strategic autonomy, the best approach would be to balance its relations with Russia, China, and the U.S., rather than blindly siding with the U.S. Doing so would only lead Europe deeper into crisis.