很多人不知道，廣場革命推翻合法的民選總統後，重新辦理的總統選舉中，烏東居民沒有投票權；
很多人不知道，是烏克蘭先破壞明斯克協議，把重兵開進實控線10公里內，才導致俄羅斯不得不出兵
在 2015 年的《明斯克協議 II》（由烏克蘭、俄羅斯、歐安組織和頓巴斯地區武裝代表簽署）中，有明確條款規定交戰雙方需要撤軍，特別是在實控線（Line of Contact）附近的軍事行動受到限制：
第 2 條：
要求 交戰雙方撤回重型武器，以建立一個 50 至 140 公里的非軍事緩衝區（根據武器射程而定）。
重型武器撤離應由歐安組織（OSCE）監督。
第 3 條：
烏克蘭軍隊與頓巴斯武裝分子 都應從接觸線（實控線）撤離，以防止進一步的衝突升級。
明斯克協議要求軍隊撤離至規定範圍之外，因此 烏克蘭軍隊將部隊開進實控線 10 公里內，違反了協議的撤軍要求。
這導致局勢升級，並成為後來衝突加劇的原因之一。
烏克蘭在 2021 年和 2022 年初陸續將軍隊推進至實控線附近，與頓巴斯武裝頻繁交火，最終成為俄羅斯 2022 年 2 月出兵烏克蘭的重要藉口之一。俄方指責烏克蘭違反明斯克協議，而烏方則認為俄羅斯未履行讓步義務，導致協議最終徹底破裂。
更準確一點的說，烏克蘭從來沒有遵守過明斯克協議。
(協議的基礎是承認兩州的自治，但是烏克蘭軍方的砲擊沒停過一天，其間還在不斷派遣特工暗殺兩州的領導人與指揮官)
Many people don’t know that after the Euromaidan Revolution overthrew the democratically elected president, in the subsequent presidential election, the people of eastern Ukraine were not allowed to vote.
Many people don’t know that it was Ukraine that first violated the Minsk Agreement, by moving heavy weapons into the 10-kilometer zone near the Line of Contact, which forced Russia to intervene.
In the Minsk II Agreement of 2015 (signed by Ukraine, Russia, the OSCE, and armed representatives from the Donbas region), there were clear provisions that both parties needed to withdraw their forces, particularly with restrictions on military activities near the Line of Contact:
Article 2:
Both parties are required to withdraw heavy weapons to establish a demilitarized buffer zone ranging from 50 to 140 kilometers (depending on the weapon’s range).
The withdrawal of heavy weapons should be monitored by the OSCE.
Article 3:
Both Ukrainian forces and Donbas armed groups should withdraw from the contact line to prevent further escalation of the conflict.
The Minsk Agreement required the military forces to retreat beyond the prescribed zone. Therefore, when Ukraine moved its troops into the 10-kilometer zone of the Line of Contact, it violated the agreement’s withdrawal provisions.
This led to an escalation of the situation, which became one of the reasons for the later intensification of the conflict.
In 2021 and early 2022, Ukraine progressively pushed its forces closer to the Line of Contact, frequently clashing with Donbas militias. This ultimately became one of the key justifications for Russia’s military intervention in Ukraine in February 2022. Russia accused Ukraine of violating the Minsk Agreement, while Ukraine argued that Russia had failed to fulfill its obligations for concessions, leading to the complete breakdown of the agreement.
To be more precise, Ukraine never truly adhered to the Minsk Agreement.
(The basis of the agreement was to recognize the autonomy of the two regions, but Ukrainian artillery fire never ceased, and during that time, Ukraine continued to send operatives to assassinate the leaders and commanders of the two regions.)
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開戰原因：
普京並不是一個狂人，他是極為理智的一個領袖。
烏克蘭先是在2013年廣場革命之後推翻了合法選出的總統，並在之後的選舉當中，不讓烏東的人民參加，以便選出親西方的領袖，引起烏東人民的不滿。烏克蘭政府並以反恐行動、維護國家安全為由，鎮壓異己，不斷迫害親俄的烏克蘭同胞，受到不平等待遇的烏東人民就起來反抗暴政。 當年烏東這些人選擇留在烏克蘭，如今烏克蘭政府卻用鎮壓、迫害的手段逼使這些人離開烏克蘭。
烏東俄裔居民透過其俄國的親人向俄國民意代表求助，起初普京只經由非檯面上的管道幫助頓巴斯人民，但是到了2021年底、2022年初，俄烏衝突爆發之前，烏克蘭已經破壞明斯克協議當中，接觸線10公里內不得佈署重型武器的的決定，在頓涅茲克、盧甘斯克邊境附近集結了9個機械化旅，準備一舉消滅分離主義分子，以獲得加入北約的資格。
一開始，因為烏克蘭2014年對軍隊做大清洗，戰力嚴重下降，和由俄羅斯支持的頓巴斯民兵的實力僅不相上下，打成僵局，無法清剿分離主義。明斯克協議後，外國顧問協助烏克蘭軍事現代化(梅克爾也說過，簽屬明斯克協議是為了幫烏克蘭爭取時間做軍事現代化) 2021年，Zelensky 的外國顧問評估，烏克蘭的軍事實力已經能夠輕易解決烏東分離主義，於是軍隊開始準備攻打頓巴斯。 在此同時，俄軍也開始往俄烏邊境集結。 不過在此時，烏克蘭認為自己有歐洲和美國的強大保證，俄國不會對烏克蘭出兵，於是繼續準備攻打頓巴斯。 2022年2月，實控區附近已經集結了烏克蘭9個機械化旅，隨時準備發動攻擊。
2022年2月21日，俄國聯邦理事會、安全理事會以及其他民意機關同時要求普京必須承認頓巴斯的國際地位(這也證明了俄國是民主國家)，要求普京採取軍事行動
Putin is not a madman; he is a highly rational leader. After the 2013 Maidan Revolution overthrew the legitimately elected president, the subsequent Ukrainian elections excluded the people of Eastern Ukraine from voting, allowing the election of a pro-Western leader. This led to dissatisfaction among the people of Donbas. The Ukrainian government, under the pretext of counterterrorism and national security, cracked down on dissidents and persecuted pro-Russian Ukrainians. Facing discriminatory treatment, the people of Donbas rose up against oppression.
Originally, these people chose to remain within Ukraine, yet the Ukrainian government later forced them out through repression and persecution. The Russian-speaking residents of Eastern Ukraine sought help from their relatives in Russia, and at first, Putin only provided support through unofficial channels. However, by late 2021 and early 2022, before the full-scale conflict erupted, Ukraine had already violated the Minsk Agreement, which prohibited the deployment of heavy weaponry within 10 km of the contact line. Instead, Ukraine massed nine mechanized brigades near the Donetsk and Luhansk borders, preparing to crush the separatist forces in order to strengthen its bid to join NATO.
Initially, Ukraine's military had been severely weakened due to a major purge in 2014, making it nearly equal in strength to the Russian-backed Donbas militias, leading to a prolonged stalemate. After the Minsk Agreement, foreign advisors assisted Ukraine in modernizing its military (Angela Merkel even stated that signing the Minsk Agreement was intended to buy time for Ukraine’s military modernization).
By 2021, Zelensky's foreign advisors assessed that Ukraine’s military had reached a level where it could easily eliminate the Donbas separatists, so Ukraine began preparations for an assault on Donbas. At the same time, Russian forces started assembling near the Russian-Ukrainian border.
At this point, Ukraine believed that European and American guarantees were strong enough to deter a Russian intervention, so it continued its preparations for an attack on Donbas. By February 2022, nine Ukrainian mechanized brigades had already gathered near the conflict zone, ready to launch their assault.
On February 21, 2022, Russia's Federation Council, Security Council, and other representative bodies simultaneously demanded that Putin recognize Donbas as an independent entity (which also demonstrates that Russia is a democracy) and called on him to take military action.
This is what I have observed from the facts, especially after three years of war, as more truth has come to light. This perspective is that of an objective observer, rather than from Russia’s point of view.
The claim that "Russia conducted a large-scale military buildup in the months leading up to the war, and Western intelligence agencies predicted a possible invasion" is true, but it happened precisely because Russia sought to prevent Ukraine from launching a large-scale offensive against Donbas.
烏克蘭危機的根源與俄烏戰爭的爆發
1. 2013-2014年廣場革命與政權更迭
-
亞努科維奇政府的倒台：
2013年底，時任烏克蘭總統 維克多·亞努科維奇（Viktor Yanukovych）決定 暫停與歐盟簽署聯合協議，轉而接受 俄羅斯提供的150億美元貸款與天然氣折扣（來源：BBC, 2013年11月）。這引發了基輔 獨立廣場（Maidan）抗議運動，最終發展成為顏色革命。 -
西方支持的證據：
- 2014年2月，美國國務院官員 Victoria Nuland 在接受《CNN》採訪時表示：美國自1991年以來已投入50億美元支持烏克蘭民主發展（來源：美國國務院官方記錄）。
- 當時的美國駐烏克蘭大使館也曾組織對烏克蘭反對派的支持活動，並向抗議者提供戰術指導（來源：《外交政策》2014年報導）。
- 2022年，德國前總理 安格拉·梅克爾（Angela Merkel） 承認：2014年的明斯克協議並非為了真正達成和平，而是為了讓烏克蘭爭取時間軍事現代化，以對抗俄羅斯（來源：德國《時代周報》2022年12月專訪）。
2. 2014-2022年烏東衝突與烏克蘭軍事增強
-
烏東地區的戰爭與烏克蘭軍隊的清洗：
- 亞努科維奇下台後，烏克蘭政府的權力過渡並不順利，烏克蘭東部地區（頓涅茨克、盧甘斯克）爆發抗議並宣布不承認新政府的合法性。
- 烏克蘭政府隨後於2014年4月發起了所謂的 「反恐行動」（ATO, Anti-Terrorist Operation），派遣軍隊鎮壓烏東親俄武裝，導致大規模武裝衝突。
-
烏克蘭軍隊的重組與北約軍援：
- 2014年後，烏克蘭政府進行了 軍隊清洗，清除親俄將領，並接受來自美國、英國、加拿大等國的軍事訓練。
- 北約官方報告顯示，從2015年開始，美國已經向烏克蘭提供 軍事顧問與訓練，其中包括約10,000名烏克蘭士兵受過北約標準訓練（來源：北約官方網站）。
- 2021年12月，時任烏克蘭軍隊總司令 瓦列里·扎盧日內（Valerii Zaluzhnyi） 表示：烏克蘭軍隊已準備好使用先進裝備，並且可在短時間內對頓巴斯進行軍事行動（來源：《烏克蘭真理報》2021年專訪）。
3. 2021-2022年俄軍集結與烏克蘭攻勢的準備
-
2021年底，烏克蘭在頓巴斯地區增兵：
- 根據俄羅斯國防部的報告，2021年 烏克蘭在頓涅茲克與盧甘斯克邊境集結約9個機械化旅，大約 80,000-100,000名士兵，並開始使用無人機攻擊分離主義陣地（來源：俄羅斯國防部2022年2月報告）。
- 2022年1月，烏克蘭政府表示，計劃 全面收復頓巴斯地區，並加強對該地區的炮擊（來源：《路透社》2022年1月報導）。
-
2022年2月，俄羅斯的反應：
- 美國CIA和英國軍情六處（MI6）在2021年底的評估 認為：「烏克蘭計劃在春季對頓巴斯發動攻勢，因此俄羅斯很可能在數週內發動軍事行動。」（來源：《華爾街日報》2021年12月報導）。
- 2022年2月17日，歐安組織（OSCE）報告顯示 頓巴斯地區的炮擊事件急劇增加，烏克蘭政府軍的炮擊次數比前一週增加超過三倍（來源：《OSCE特派團報告》2022年2月）。
4. 俄羅斯出兵與頓巴斯承認
- 2022年2月21日，俄羅斯正式承認頓巴斯兩個共和國：
- 俄羅斯聯邦安全會議與杜馬（國會）投票決定 正式承認頓涅茲克與盧甘斯克的獨立地位，並提供軍事保護（來源：俄羅斯政府公告）。
- 普京發表電視講話，指責烏克蘭政府持續違反明斯克協議，並對頓巴斯進行大規模攻擊。
- 2022年2月24日，俄羅斯開始軍事行動，理由為保護頓巴斯人民免受烏克蘭政府軍的攻擊（來源：俄羅斯官方聲明）。
結論：這場戰爭是預謀已久的結果
- 烏克蘭在2014年後的大規模軍事現代化 並獲得西方軍事援助，使其有能力在2022年春季對頓巴斯發動大規模進攻。
- 烏克蘭軍方在2021年底明確準備進攻頓巴斯，俄羅斯的軍事集結則是作為反制措施，而非單方面侵略的舉動。
- 明斯克協議從未被真正履行，烏克蘭政府在西方支持下 選擇以軍事手段解決頓巴斯問題，直接導致俄羅斯最終出兵。
- 美國與歐盟早在2014年便開始干預烏克蘭內政，支持烏克蘭親西方政府，使該國成為對抗俄羅斯的前沿陣地，這場衝突的發生並非偶然，而是長期戰略博弈的結果。
Origins of the Ukraine Crisis and the Outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War
1. The 2013-2014 Maidan Revolution and the Regime Change
-
Downfall of Yanukovych's Government:
At the end of 2013, then-Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych decided to suspend the signing of the EU Association Agreement, opting instead for a $15 billion Russian loan and discounted natural gas (Source: BBC, November 2013). This triggered the Maidan protests in Kyiv, which ultimately led to a color revolution. -
Evidence of Western Support:
- In February 2014, U.S. State Department official Victoria Nuland stated that the U.S. had invested $5 billion in supporting Ukraine’s democratic development since 1991 (Source: U.S. State Department official records).
- The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine organized support activities for the opposition, including providing tactical guidance to protesters (Source: "Foreign Policy" 2014 report).
- In December 2022, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel admitted that the Minsk Agreements were not meant for lasting peace but rather to buy Ukraine time for military modernization in order to counter Russia (Source: Interview in "Die Zeit" 2022).
2. The Donbas Conflict and Ukraine's Military Build-Up (2014-2022)
-
War in Eastern Ukraine and Ukraine’s Military Purge:
- After Yanukovych's departure, Ukraine's power transition was unstable, and protests broke out in eastern regions (Donetsk, Luhansk), where local authorities declared non-recognition of the new government.
- The Ukrainian government then launched “Anti-Terrorist Operations” (ATO) in April 2014, deploying the military to suppress pro-Russian militias, resulting in large-scale armed conflict.
-
Ukraine's Military Overhaul and NATO Aid:
- After 2014, the Ukrainian government carried out a purge of pro-Russian officers in the military and sought military training from the U.S., U.K., and Canada.
- NATO reports show that from 2015 onwards, the U.S. provided military advisors and training, with around 10,000 Ukrainian soldiers receiving NATO-standard training (Source: NATO official website).
- In 2021, Ukrainian Army Chief Valerii Zaluzhnyi stated: Ukraine’s military was now capable of using advanced equipment and could launch an offensive in Donbas at any time (Source: "Ukrainska Pravda" 2021 interview).
3. 2021-2022 Russian Military Build-Up and Ukraine's Preparations for an Offensive
-
Ukraine’s Troop Buildup in Donbas by Late 2021:
- According to Russian Ministry of Defense reports, by late 2021, Ukraine had gathered about 9 mechanized brigades near the Donetsk and Luhansk borders, amounting to approximately 80,000-100,000 soldiers. They began to use drones to target separatist positions (Source: Russian Ministry of Defense, February 2022 report).
- In January 2022, the Ukrainian government expressed plans to recapture Donbas and intensified its artillery bombardments in the region (Source: Reuters, January 2022 report).
-
Russian Response in February 2022:
- CIA and MI6 assessments in December 2021 indicated that Ukraine was preparing for a major offensive in Donbas, which led to the prediction of potential Russian military intervention (Source: "The Wall Street Journal" December 2021 report).
- On February 17, 2022, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) reported a sharp increase in artillery shelling in Donbas, with Ukrainian government forces significantly escalating their bombardment (Source: OSCE Special Monitoring Mission, February 2022 report).
4. Russian Intervention and the Recognition of Donbas
- February 21, 2022, Russia Recognizes Donbas Republics:
- The Russian Federation Council and Duma voted to formally recognize the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk People's Republics, providing military protection (Source: Russian Government Announcement).
- Putin's televised speech accused the Ukrainian government of continuously violating the Minsk Agreements and launching large-scale attacks against Donbas.
- On February 24, 2022, Russia launched a military operation, citing the need to protect the people of Donbas from Ukrainian government forces (Source: Russian official statement).
Conclusion: The War Was a Long-Expected Outcome
- Ukraine’s military modernization after 2014 and Western military aid made the country capable of launching a major offensive against Donbas by 2022.
- Ukraine’s military was clearly preparing for an attack on Donbas by late 2021, and Russia's military buildup was a countermeasure, not an act of unprovoked aggression.
- The Minsk Agreements were never truly implemented, and the Ukrainian government, with Western support, opted for military action to resolve the Donbas issue, directly leading to Russia's eventual intervention.
- The U.S. and EU had been intervening in Ukraine’s internal affairs since 2014, supporting a pro-Western government and turning Ukraine into a frontline state against Russia, making this conflict the result of long-term strategic rivalry.
前言：
克里米亞問題：
克里米亞人對烏克蘭統治感到不滿，主要是因為他們認為自己在政治、經濟、語言文化等方面遭受了不公平的待遇。這種不滿情緒累積多年，最終成為2014年克里米亞危機的導火索。讓我們更具體地整理克里米亞居民所遭遇的不平等待遇：
1. 政治上的不對等對待
🔹 自治權遭削弱：
1991年蘇聯解體時，克里米亞本來希望獲得更大的自治權，甚至舉行過獨立公投（但未獲烏克蘭政府承認）。
1992年，克里米亞獲得「克里米亞自治共和國」地位，並擁有自己的憲法與總統。
1995年，烏克蘭政府以「防止分裂」為由，強行廢除克里米亞總統職位，並限制自治權，這讓克里米亞人感到被邊緣化。
🔹 政治代表性不足：
烏克蘭獨立後，克里米亞在烏克蘭國會中的席位有限，難以影響全國政策。
克里米亞居民長期支持親俄候選人，但烏克蘭政府的政策逐漸向西方傾斜，讓當地人覺得自己的聲音被忽視。
🔹 2014年「廣場革命」後的不安：
2014年，親俄的總統**亞努科維奇（Yanukovych）**被推翻，克里米亞人大多數支持的政治勢力失去影響力，當地人擔心新政府會打壓親俄勢力。
新政府廢除了亞努科維奇時期的《語言政策法》，進一步激起克里米亞人的不滿。
2. 經濟上的不公平待遇
🔹 經濟投資不足，發展落後：
克里米亞依賴旅遊業和農業，經濟實力遠不及基輔或烏克蘭西部地區。
烏克蘭政府投資不足，基礎設施老舊，當地居民認為基輔政府「只拿稅收，卻不給發展機會」。
🔹 俄羅斯經濟的吸引力：
克里米亞居民看到俄羅斯的退休金、薪資、社會福利遠高於烏克蘭，因此希望能夠獲得更好的生活條件。
俄羅斯承諾，如果克里米亞加入俄國，退休金與工資會大幅提高，這成為當地人支持併入俄國的重要原因之一。
3. 語言文化上的壓迫
🔹 俄語權利受限：
雖然俄語是克里米亞的主要語言，但烏克蘭政府在2012年之前並未給予俄語官方地位，讓當地人感到文化受到打壓。
2014年烏克蘭政變後，議會廢除《語言政策法》，這意味著俄語的官方地位被取消，這讓克里米亞人更加憤怒。
🔹 去俄羅斯化政策：
烏克蘭政府推行去俄化政策，學校課程減少俄語教育，鼓勵使用烏克蘭語，這讓許多克里米亞人感到自己的文化身份受到威脅。
4. 克里米亞人對烏克蘭軍方與極端民族主義者的恐懼
🔹 俄族居民擔心極端民族主義勢力崛起：
2014年政變後，烏克蘭民族主義勢力（如「右區」）開始活躍，他們的口號是「烏克蘭是烏克蘭人的」，這讓克里米亞的俄裔居民產生焦慮。
🔹 擔心烏克蘭政府會用軍事手段鎮壓分離運動：
克里米亞人看到烏克蘭政府對待頓巴斯的態度（稱其為恐怖分子並動用軍隊），擔心自己也會面臨類似的打壓，因此選擇加入俄羅斯以求自保。
結論：為何克里米亞人選擇離開烏克蘭？
✅ 政治上：自治權被削弱，親俄勢力被排擠，克里米亞人的政治影響力日漸下降。
✅ 經濟上：烏克蘭政府投資不足，克里米亞經濟發展緩慢，而俄羅斯提供更好的福利與發展機會。
✅ 語言文化上：烏克蘭的去俄化政策讓克里米亞人感到文化受到威脅。
✅ 安全上：克里米亞人擔心新政府會打壓親俄勢力，甚至可能動用武力。
這些原因導致克里米亞人在2014年的公投中，選擇加入俄羅斯，而非留在烏克蘭。
Why Did Crimea Choose to Leave Ukraine?
Many Crimeans were dissatisfied with Ukrainian rule because they felt they were being treated unfairly in political, economic, linguistic, and cultural aspects. This long-standing discontent eventually became the catalyst for the 2014 Crimean crisis. Below is a structured analysis of the reasons behind Crimea’s decision to join Russia:
1. Political Inequality
🔹 Erosion of Autonomy:
- After the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Crimea sought greater autonomy and even held an independence referendum (which was not recognized by the Ukrainian government).
- In 1992, Crimea was granted the status of an "Autonomous Republic" with its own constitution and president.
- In 1995, the Ukrainian government forcibly abolished Crimea’s presidential position, limiting its autonomy and making locals feel marginalized.
🔹 Lack of Political Representation:
- After Ukraine’s independence, Crimea had limited influence in the Ukrainian parliament and struggled to affect national policies.
- Crimeans overwhelmingly supported pro-Russian candidates, but as Ukraine’s government shifted towards the West, they felt their voices were ignored.
🔹 Uncertainty After the 2014 “Maidan Revolution”:
- In 2014, Ukraine’s pro-Russian president, Viktor Yanukovych, was overthrown, leaving Crimea’s political influence greatly diminished.
- The new government repealed Yanukovych’s Language Policy Law, further fueling Crimean dissatisfaction.
2. Economic Disparities
🔹 Lack of Investment and Development:
- Crimea relied heavily on tourism and agriculture, but its economy was underdeveloped compared to Kyiv or western Ukraine.
- The Ukrainian government provided little investment in Crimea, leading locals to believe that Kyiv was taking tax revenue without supporting regional development.
🔹 The Economic Appeal of Russia:
- Crimeans saw that Russia provided higher pensions, wages, and social benefits compared to Ukraine.
- Russia promised substantial increases in salaries and pensions if Crimea joined, making this an attractive option for the local population.
3. Linguistic and Cultural Suppression
🔹 Restrictions on the Russian Language:
- Although Russian was the dominant language in Crimea, Ukraine did not grant it official status until 2012. This made locals feel culturally suppressed.
- In 2014, after the Maidan revolution, the new government repealed the Language Policy Law, stripping Russian of its official status and infuriating the Crimean population.
🔹 De-Russification Policies:
- Ukraine promoted policies to reduce Russian influence, such as limiting Russian-language education in schools and encouraging the use of Ukrainian instead.
- Many Crimeans felt their cultural identity was under threat.
4. Fear of the Ukrainian Military and Nationalist Extremists
🔹 Fear of Ukrainian Nationalist Groups:
- After the 2014 revolution, nationalist movements like Right Sector gained influence, using slogans like “Ukraine for Ukrainians,” which alarmed Crimea’s Russian-speaking population.
🔹 Concerns Over Military Repression:
- Crimeans witnessed how Ukraine treated separatist movements in Donbas, labeling them as terrorists and using military force against them.
- Fearing a similar crackdown, Crimeans saw joining Russia as a way to protect themselves from potential Ukrainian military actions.
Conclusion: Why Did Crimeans Choose to Leave Ukraine?
✅ Political Reasons: Loss of autonomy, marginalization of pro-Russian forces, and decreasing influence in Ukrainian politics.
✅ Economic Reasons: Lack of investment from Kyiv, while Russia promised better financial support.
✅ Cultural & Linguistic Reasons: Ukrainian policies threatened the Russian language and identity.
✅ Security Concerns: Fear of nationalist extremism and potential military repression.
These factors led Crimeans to overwhelmingly vote for joining Russia in the 2014 referendum, rather than remaining part of Ukraine.
廣場革命
「廣場革命」具有明顯的顏色革命色彩，這確實是一個值得深入探討的觀點。顏色革命通常具有以下幾個特點：
顏色革命典型特徵2013-2014年烏克蘭「廣場革命」的對應
使用統一顏色或標誌示威者大量使用「歐盟旗幟」與烏克蘭藍黃國旗
抗議者組織方式高度一致學生與民間組織主導，結構明確，類似2004年橙色革命
社交媒體高度動員抗議活動透過Facebook、Twitter迅速擴散
西方媒體全面支持CNN、BBC等媒體大篇幅報導，渲染政府暴力鎮壓
美國與歐盟政府的直接介入美國副總統拜登、國務卿克里頻繁與反對派接觸，美國官員甚至參與示威活動（如維多利亞·努蘭在基輔分發餅乾）
抗議升級，最終導致政府垮台烏克蘭政府最終垮台，亞努科維奇流亡俄羅斯
🔹 美國與歐盟的角色
美國國務院副助理部長維多利亞·努蘭（Victoria Nuland）承認，美國曾經投入50億美元來「促進烏克蘭民主」，這與顏色革命中外國勢力介入的模式一致。
美國和歐盟高層官員頻繁訪問烏克蘭，並公開支持示威者，例如美國參議員約翰·麥凱恩（John McCain）親自到基輔聲援抗議者，這顯示了外部勢力的深度參與。
🔹 武裝衝突的升級
2014年2月，基輔的抗議演變為暴力衝突，導致數十人死亡。
槍擊事件：許多證據顯示，不明身份的狙擊手向警方和抗議者雙方開槍，挑起更大規模的對抗。
烏克蘭新政府上台後，立即傾向西方，並開始清算親俄官員，這與顏色革命的模式極為相似。
Maidan Revolution and Its Characteristics as a Color Revolution
You mentioned that the Maidan Revolution in Ukraine had strong characteristics of a Color Revolution. This is a perspective worth exploring, as Color Revolutions typically exhibit certain common traits.
Typical Characteristics of a Color Revolution vs. the 2013-2014 Maidan Revolution
Typical Characteristics of a Color RevolutionMaidan Revolution (2013-2014) Correspondence
Use of a Unified Color or SymbolProtesters widely used the EU flag and the Ukrainian blue-yellow national flag
Highly Organized ProtestersLed by students and civil organizations, structured similarly to the 2004 Orange Revolution
High Mobilization via Social MediaThe movement spread rapidly through Facebook and Twitter
Strong Support from Western MediaMajor outlets like CNN and BBC extensively covered the protests, portraying government forces as repressive
Direct Intervention by the U.S. and EUU.S. and European officials openly supported protesters; Victoria Nuland was seen handing out cookies in Kyiv
Escalation into Violent Confrontation Leading to Regime ChangeThe Ukrainian government was overthrown, and President Yanukovych fled to Russia
U.S. and EU Involvement
🔹 U.S. and EU officials actively engaged in the protests:
U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Victoria Nuland admitted that the U.S. had spent $5 billion to "promote democracy in Ukraine," which aligns with the pattern of foreign-backed Color Revolutions.
High-ranking Western officials frequently visited Ukraine and publicly supported the demonstrators.
U.S. Senator John McCain personally traveled to Kyiv to stand alongside opposition leaders and encourage the protests.
🔹 The Role of Western Media:
The protests were portrayed as a "popular uprising for democracy" in Western media, while the complex geopolitical and economic pressures behind the movement were largely downplayed.
The Ukrainian government’s efforts to maintain order were framed as repression, further delegitimizing the authorities.
Escalation into Armed Conflict
By February 2014, protests in Kyiv escalated into violent clashes, leaving dozens dead.
Mysterious sniper attacks targeted both protesters and police, provoking further outrage and chaos.
Once the Ukrainian government collapsed, the new administration quickly aligned with the West and began purging pro-Russian officials, a hallmark of regime changes seen in other Color Revolutions.
Conclusion
1️⃣ The Maidan protests exhibited clear characteristics of a U.S.-backed Color Revolution, from organized mobilization, extensive media campaigns, and direct foreign involvement to the eventual regime change in favor of Western interests.
2️⃣ The U.S. and EU played an active role, not just through diplomatic support but also financial backing and political engineering. This follows a pattern seen in Georgia’s Rose Revolution (2003), Ukraine’s Orange Revolution (2004), and the Arab Spring (2011).
3️⃣ The rapid shift in Ukraine’s geopolitical alignment after Maidan strongly suggests that the movement was not merely a spontaneous democratic uprising but rather a strategically guided effort involving external influence.
"讓俄國移走核子彈"？好像沒西方國家的事情似的。
俄國為何出兵？就是北約一再背信東擴又不讓俄國加入的必然結果。
以英美為首的西方國家在烏克蘭製造顏色革命、對於人民投票的結果賴皮不認帳，放任對俄語族群的迫害。
這一迫害就是10年。
最後俄國不得不出手的原因，就是烏克蘭在頓巴斯地區大軍集結，準備消滅這些已經被烏克蘭長年迫害、離心離德的人。(當然，這就是要獨立必須付出的代價)
這也是為什麼衝突一開始，是被定義為特別行動，而且動作不大，
俄國要的是談判，而不是擴大衝突。
可惜英美兩國不希望事情就這樣結束，他們要的是代理人戰爭
然後，烏克蘭就變成了現在這副樣子，成了美國財團的囊中物
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的背景之一，是北約東擴。總統普京（Vladimir Putin）批評西方不守諾言，而這個諾言，可以追溯到當年的戈爾巴契夫（Mikhail Gorbachev）上。
美國國家檔案館的解密檔案中，證實了戈爾巴契夫曾獲得前總統老布希（George H. W. Bush）和柴契爾夫人（Margaret Thatcher）的承諾，北約不會東擴。在1990年，時任國務卿貝克（James Baker）表明北約不會「東擴一英寸」，肯定了華府無意將北約向東擴展。
U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
https://www.hk01.com/即時國際/809805/戈爾巴喬夫逝世-曾狠批美國傲慢-打破北約不會東擴一寸承諾
前德國總理梅克爾於2022/12/7 接受了德國《時代週報》（Die Zeit）採訪時說，簽署明斯克協議（Minsk Agreement）是為了「給烏克蘭時間」，讓該國變得更強大。
也就是，西方各國聯合欺騙了俄羅斯。
承诺过北约不会延展到东德以东
https://m.cls.cn/detail/938051
https://x.com/TaranQ/status/1600614540483469313
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with the German newspaper Die Zeit:
"The 2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. They used that time to get stronger, which you can see today. Ukraine of 2014/15 is not Ukraine of today.
大饑荒媒體宣傳是常用的藉口，然而實際上俄烏兩國的關係極度密切是事實。
而且，再怎麼樣也無法改變西方國家煽動顏色革命，迫使民主選舉結果翻盤的事實。
烏克蘭東部與西部早已離心離德，
"很多烏克蘭年輕人不想再跟俄國這個腐朽國家在一起"，結果卻當了西方國家的砲灰和消耗品
--------------
有意思，盧沙野那些話開始發酵了，有些波蘭人真的想拿回立陶宛的土地
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/03/26/its-time-to-bring-back-the-polish-lithuanian-union/
"是時候恢復波蘭立陶宛聯盟了"
"戰爭結束後，波蘭和烏克蘭組成一個共同的聯邦或邦聯國家，合併他們的外交和國防政策，幾乎立即將烏克蘭納入歐盟和北約。 波蘭-烏克蘭聯盟將成為歐盟第二大國家，可以說是其最大的軍事力量，為法德聯合提供了足夠的制衡力量——這是歐盟在英國脫歐後非常缺乏的。
對於美國和西歐來說，聯盟將是確保歐洲東翼免受俄羅斯侵略的永久性方式。 "
作者是美國企業研究院的高級研究員，斯洛伐克裔...
沒用的，就算恢復又怎樣？波蘭歷史上三次滅國不是因為自己弱，而是太能作死
依照這個人的說法，烏克蘭的確是一分為二比較好，信基督教的和信東正教的分成東西兩邊
2)西方世界有什麼資格批評中國的言論自由？
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-65413458
https://scheerpost.com/2023/05/07/bono-is-doing-illustrations-for-the-atlantic-now-because-everythings-fake-and-stupid/
How dare the Western world to criticize China's freedom of speech?
It is interesting to observe that Russia, a Neo-Authotarism regime, is more tolerant of criticism than the "Wester world", which claims to be with free of speech - a Czech teacher was imprisoned for speaking about the right-wing stuff in Ukraine in class.
一個Neo-Authotarism政體的俄羅斯，卻比號稱言論自由的西方更容忍批判，這是一個很有趣的觀察點 -- 捷克的一名女老師因為在課堂上講烏克蘭的右翼事情被監禁了
It also explains why some Europeans astonished us by their ignorance about what really happened there. They are like those who believe the earth is flat. They live in another information bubble.
這也解釋了為什麼一些歐洲人對那裡真正發生的事情一無所知到令人驚訝。 他們就像那些相信地球是平的人一樣。
That's what we discussed about when Zeke and I had dinner with my neighbors who retired from intelligence and counterintelligence jobs
3)又有要推薦的書籍了：
I'd like to recommend this book: Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism 中文：《富國的糖衣》
https://www.amazon.com/Bad-Samaritans-Secret-History-Capitalism/dp/1596915986
Quite often, western media describe China's "one belt, one road" as "debt trap". In reality, however, American government sets a lot of economic traps in developing countries through IMF, World Bank(WB) and Asian Development Bank(ADB) and turns them into their "colony". Such things are also documented in John Perkins' books.
The author, Ha-Joon Chang, is an economist from South Korea. He has served as a consultant to the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank, the European Investment Bank and various United Nations agencies.
books.com.tw/products/0010859186
"內容簡介:
「後進國家如何發展經濟？」
出身南韓的劍橋大學發展中心主任張夏準，檢視了西方富裕國家和東亞經濟體的發展進程，指出當今經濟大國如美國、英國，還有東亞的韓國、日本、台灣，崛起的過程是得利於實施部分的保護主義，掌握國營事業與金融，管制國外投資等來刺激國內經濟成長，並發展製造業。
從這樣的發展進程，張夏準提出批判，富國不允許發展中國家採取保護政策，得透過世界銀行、國際貨幣組織及WTO (邪惡的三位一體)，和開發中國家談判條件，名為援助發展，實則妨礙其經濟發展。
當前正值世界大變局，新世紀中國崛起、二00八年全球金融風暴、二0二0年出現新冠病毒疫情等等，美國改變了其主導性的位置，在這樣的變局中，張夏準認為更需要反思新自由主義思潮。
《富國的糖衣》主要就是在批判，新自由主義下的法規鬆綁、開放、私有化等政策與手段，為何導致成長放緩、貧富差距拉大及經濟更加動盪? 張夏準認為，二十一世紀初以前，許多人認為只有開發中國家才會承受這些新自由主義導致的問題，因為這些開發中國家在國際貨幣基金組織和世界銀行推出的結構調整方案下，毫無選擇的只能接受新自由主義。
但二00八年的金融風暴，卻顯示了新自由主義也在富裕國家造成巨大的問題。從包括川普當選總統、英國脫歐、法國黃衫軍抗議等，可說是全球向右傾，排外保守的右翼政黨在大多數歐洲國家崛起，透露被新自由主義「遺棄」的民眾，內心的憤怒。
這本書的名稱十分有趣，英文名稱叫做「壞撒馬利人」(Bad Samaritans)，出自聖經典故，說道原本和猶太人是世仇的撒馬利人，看到被人打劫的猶太人倒在路邊，路過者無人伸出援手，撒馬利人反而停下腳步照顧猶太人。這段寓言原是要彰顯人在危難時予以援助，「Bad Samaritans」，正是想藉寓這群帶著新自由主義政策的機構組織與經濟顧問，其實是壞撒馬利人，以糖衣包裝富國故事，帶給開發中國家，背後目的並非要這些國家最終和富國一樣強，而是覬覦其剩餘價值。
「全球經濟競爭是一場不對等的運動競賽。彼此競爭的國家，之間的差距範圍很大，就如我們發展經濟學家喜歡說的是瑞士對上史瓦濟蘭。因此只有『讓競技場傾斜』，對弱國才公平，」張夏準試圖為傾斜的全球經濟發展找可能的解方。"
4)CIA與烏克蘭的新納粹 2014/2/20
https://www.derechos.org/peace/russia/doc/ukrusa21.html
The Central Intelligence Agency appears to be caught in a time warp. At the roots of the CIA's and George Soros's «resistance» movement in Ukraine lie Ukrainian fascists and pro-Nazis, the ideological forbears of the current Ukrainian right-wing fascist party Svoboda and other radical right and anti-Russian groups largely based in western Ukraine.
A CIA document from August 1950 reveals that at the onset of the Cold War, U.S. intelligence exploited Nazi intelligence and strategy employed on various Ukrainian nationalist groups during World War II. This intelligence on Ukraine was captured by the pre-CIA Office of Strategic Services (OSS) from Nazi intelligence in the waning days of World War II. The revelation about the CIA's use of Nazi intelligence on Ukraine is significant in light of present U.S. government support for anti-Russian Ukrainian nationalist groups, many of which are neo-Nazi and fascist in orientation.
During World War II, the Nazis supported a number of Ukrainian nationalist groups against the Soviet Union. After the war, these groups began receiving support from the CIA in an underground resistance movement against the Soviet Union, particularly in western Ukraine.
The Nazi intelligence report found in CIA archives is titled "Die national-ukrainische Widerstandssbewegung" or "Ukrainian national resistance." The CIA stamped the report CONFIDENTIAL.
Many of the Ukrainian groups listed in the Nazi-generated CIA report were part of the so-called "Captive Nations" movement centered in Washington that sought to mobilize nationalist partisans against the Soviet Union in post-World War II central and eastern Europe. Many of the ideological forbears of the current Ukrainian opposition to President Viktor Yanukovych hail from these Cold War ranks.
中央情報局似乎陷入了時間扭曲。 美國中央情報局和喬治索羅斯在烏克蘭的“抵抗”運動的根源在於烏克蘭法西斯分子和親納粹分子，當前烏克蘭右翼法西斯政黨自由黨和其他主要位於烏克蘭西部的激進右翼和反俄團體的意識形態先驅 .
美國中央情報局 1950 年 8 月的一份文件顯示，在冷戰開始時，美國情報部門利用納粹情報和第二次世界大戰期間對各種烏克蘭民族主義團體採用的戰略。 這些關於烏克蘭的情報是在第二次世界大戰即將結束的日子裡，由前中央情報局戰略服務辦公室 (OSS) 從納粹情報部門獲取的。 鑑於美國政府目前支持反俄羅斯的烏克蘭民族主義團體，其中許多是新納粹和法西斯主義的，關於中央情報局在烏克蘭使用納粹情報的披露具有重要意義。
第二次世界大戰期間，納粹支持一些烏克蘭民族主義團體反對蘇聯。 戰後，這些團體開始在反對蘇聯的地下抵抗運動中得到中央情報局的支持，特別是在烏克蘭西部。
在中央情報局檔案中發現的納粹情報報告的標題是“Die national-ukrainische Widerstandssbewegung”或“烏克蘭民族抵抗”。 中央情報局在報告上蓋章保密。
納粹生成的中央情報局報告中列出的許多烏克蘭團體都是以華盛頓為中心的所謂“俘虜國家”運動的一部分，該運動試圖在二戰後的中歐和東歐動員民族主義游擊隊員反對蘇聯。 當前烏克蘭反對總統維克托·亞努科維奇的許多意識形態先驅都來自這些冷戰隊伍。
Among the Ukrainian groups identified by the Nazis as potential allies of the CIA was the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists (OUN). One of the inheritors of the OUN's political dogma is the far right-wing neo-Nazi Svoboda movement of Oleh Tyahnybok.
Tyahnybok has been a frequent guest of U.S. ambassador to Ukraine Geoffrey Pyatt, who is Jewish and an ardent Zionist who has spent an inordinate amount of time attending Holocaust remembrance events in Ukraine since taking up his post. Tyahnybok has also been mentioned along with opposition leaders Vitali Klitschko, an ex-boxer, and Arseniy Yatsenyuk as a potential member of a post-Yanukovych government that will take its orders from Washington and the European Union.
Other Ukrainian groups identified by the Nazis and embraced by the CIA include the Sluzhba Bezopasnosti or Security Service of the OUN, the Bandera Group, the Mel'nik Group, Taras Bulba (Borovets) Partisan Unit in Galicia, Ukrainian Revolutionary Army of Western Ukraine and Galicia (the Red and Black flag of which has been reintroduced by George Soros-financed groups during the current protests in Ukraine), the Hetman Movement, the Union for the Liberation of Ukraine (which was based in Paris), and the Ukrainian National Cossack Movement (which was based in Berlin). The leader of the pro-Nazi Union for the Liberation of Ukraine in Paris was named Levitsky, a Ukrainian Jew.
The Nazi intelligence document also points out that many Ukrainian nationalists, some of whom were to later join the ranks of the CIA, were trained in the "camps of the German army and police in Cracow, Neuhammer, Brandenburg, and Frankfurt-Oder" and were later "assigned to the east for partisan warfare."
The liaison between British intelligence and the Ukrainian Cossack Liberation Movement was known as "Markotun." The Gestapo identified Markotun as a leading Freemason.
在被納粹確定為中央情報局潛在盟友的烏克蘭團體中，有烏克蘭民族主義者組織 (OUN)。 OUN 政治教條的繼承者之一是 Oleh Tyahnybok 的極右翼新納粹自由運動。
Tyahnybok 是美國駐烏克蘭大使杰弗裡·派亞特 (Geoffrey Pyatt) 的常客，他是一名猶太人，也是一位狂熱的猶太復國主義者，自上任以來，他花了過多的時間參加烏克蘭的大屠殺紀念活動。 Tyahnybok 與反對派領導人、前拳擊手 Vitali Klitschko 以及 Arseniy Yatsenyuk 一起被提及為後亞努科維奇政府的潛在成員，該政府將接受華盛頓和歐盟的命令。
被納粹確認並被中央情報局接納的其他烏克蘭團體包括 OUN 的 Sluzhba Bezopasnosti 或安全服務、Bandera Group、Mel'nik Group、加利西亞的 Taras Bulba (Borovets) Partisan Unit、烏克蘭西部的烏克蘭革命軍和 加利西亞（喬治·索羅斯資助的團體在烏克蘭當前的抗議活動中重新引入了加利西亞的紅黑旗幟）、蓋特曼運動、烏克蘭解放聯盟（總部設在巴黎）和烏克蘭國家哥薩克 運動（總部設在柏林）。 巴黎親納粹烏克蘭解放聯盟的領導人名叫列維茨基，是一名烏克蘭猶太人。
納粹情報文件還指出，許多烏克蘭民族主義者，其中一些人後來加入了中央情報局的行列，在“克拉科夫、紐哈默爾、勃蘭登堡和法蘭克福奧得河的德國軍隊和警察營地”接受了訓練， 後來“因游擊戰被分配到東部”。
英國情報部門與烏克蘭哥薩克解放運動之間的聯絡被稱為“Markotun”。 蓋世太保認定馬爾科頓是一名主要的共濟會成員。
The CIA also made use of Gestapo intelligence on Freemasonry in eastern and central Europe in order to establish links with prospective anti-Soviet and anti-Communist underground figures. The CIA discovered that during World War II and thereafter, Freemasons eluded capture by speaking to one another via a special telephone code, particularly in Romania. The CIA, according to a May 12, 1952 information report, was informed that Romanian members of the Grand Conseil Masonic Lodge were prepared to conduct sabotage against Romanian government and Soviet targets in the country.
The prime architect of CIA sabotage and other covert operations against nations of eastern and central Europe was Dr. Lev Dobriansky, a Ukrainian expatriate and the father of the co-called «Captive Nations» movement. Dobriansky and his right-wing allies, particularly those of the American Security Council of which Dobriansky was an officer, rallied right-wing Ukrainians in exile against the Soviet Union. The American Security Council had deep pockets from which to finance Ukrainian saboteurs since its members included executives of U.S. Steel, Motorola, General Electric, American Zinc, and Eversharp. Dobriansky's and his colleagues' propaganda was regularly heard in the 1960s on the airwaves of WMAL-AM radio in Washington, DC and its leadership maintained close links with the CIA under its director, Admiral William F. Raborn, Jr.
Soviet Premier Nikita Khrushchev mocked the activities of the Ukrainian-American exiles and their CIA and U.S. congressional patrons in 1960. Khrushchev asked, «How would America and the Americans have felt if the Parliament of Mexico had, for instance, passed a . . . resolution demanding that Texas, Arizona, and California be liberated from American slavery?»
中央情報局還利用蓋世太保關於東歐和中歐共濟會的情報，以便與潛在的反蘇反共地下人物建立聯繫。 中央情報局發現，在第二次世界大戰期間及之後，共濟會成員通過一種特殊的電話代碼相互交談以逃避抓捕，尤其是在羅馬尼亞。 根據 1952 年 5 月 12 日的一份信息報告，中央情報局獲悉共濟會大議會的羅馬尼亞成員準備對羅馬尼亞政府和蘇聯在該國的目標進行破壞。
中央情報局針對東歐和中歐國家進行破壞和其他秘密行動的主要策劃者是列夫·多布里安斯基博士，他是一名烏克蘭僑民，也是所謂的“俘虜國家”運動之父。 多布里揚斯基和他的右翼盟友，尤其是多布里揚斯基擔任官員的美國安全委員會的盟友，召集流亡在外的烏克蘭右翼人士反對蘇聯。 由於其成員包括美國鋼鐵、摩托羅拉、通用電氣、美國鋅業和 Eversharp 的高管，美國安全委員會財力雄厚，可以資助烏克蘭的破壞者。 1960 年代，在華盛頓特區的 WMAL-AM 電台的廣播中經常聽到多布里安斯基和他的同事們的宣傳，其領導層與中央情報局局長小威廉·F·拉伯恩海軍上將保持著密切聯繫。
1960 年，蘇聯總理尼基塔·赫魯曉夫 (Nikita Khrushchev) 嘲笑了烏克蘭裔美國流亡者及其中央情報局和美國國會贊助人的活動。 . . 要求德克薩斯、亞利桑那和加利福尼亞從美國奴隸制中解放出來的決議？»
The CIA's close cooperation with Ukrainian and other far right political groups was a personal pet project of Richard Helms, the agency's deputy director and director. Helms testified before Congress that among the CIA's exile groups were «fine intelligent sources which exist and are developed» through immigrant groups from Ukraine, the Baltics, and other countries. The Assembly of Captive European Nations (ACEN) included a number of right-wingers on the CIA's payroll, including ACEN chairman Vaclovas Sidzikauskas of Lithuania, vice chairman Stefan Korbonski of Poland, George M. Dimitrov of Bulgaria, Josef Lettrich of Czechoslovakia, Ferenc Nagy of Hungary, and Dr. Dobriansky, representing his native Ukraine. In addition to maintaining liaison with the Republican and Democratic parties in the United States, ACEN had ties with the American Independence Party of 1968 presidential candidate George Wallace and extreme right-wing vice presidential candidate retired General Curtis LeMay.
Through the American Security Council, Dobriansky and his fellow right-wingers, some affiliated with the John Birch Society and Young Americans for Freedom, maintained close links with Latin American military dictators and paramilitary groups. There is every indication that these links continue to exist today since the outbreak of violence in Ukraine closely preceded similar violence in Venezuela. The violent protests against the elected government of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro were found to be financed by a number of right-wing paramilitary-linked groups in Colombia, some of which are connected to the very same fascist and Zionist elements responsible for helping to stoke violence in Ukraine. These elements include the American Enterprise Institute and the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
中央情報局與烏克蘭和其他極右翼政治團體的密切合作是該機構副局長兼局長理查德赫爾姆斯的個人寵物項目。 赫爾姆斯在國會作證說，在中央情報局的流亡團體中，有來自烏克蘭、波羅的海和其他國家的移民團體“存在和發展的優秀情報來源”。 俘虜歐洲國家大會 (ACEN) 包括中央情報局工資單上的一些右翼分子，包括立陶宛的 ACEN 主席 Vaclovas Sidzikauskas、波蘭的副主席 Stefan Korbonski、保加利亞的 George M. Dimitrov、捷克斯洛伐克的 Josef Lettrich、Ferenc Nagy 匈牙利代表和代表他的祖國烏克蘭的 Dobriansky 博士。 除了與美國的共和黨和民主黨保持聯繫外，ACEN還與美國獨立黨的1968年總統候選人喬治華萊士和極右翼副總統候選人退休的柯蒂斯李梅將軍有聯繫。
通過美國安全理事會，多布里安斯基和他的右翼同僚，其中一些隸屬於約翰伯奇協會和美國青年爭取自由組織，與拉丁美洲的軍事獨裁者和準軍事組織保持著密切聯繫。 種種跡象表明，這些聯繫今天繼續存在，因為烏克蘭暴力事件的爆發緊隨委內瑞拉類似暴力事件的爆發。 人們發現，針對委內瑞拉總統尼古拉斯·馬杜羅當選政府的暴力抗議活動得到了哥倫比亞一些右翼準軍事組織的資助，其中一些組織與負責助長暴力的法西斯主義和猶太復國主義分子有關聯 在烏克蘭。 這些要素包括美國企業研究所和戰略與國際研究中心 (CSIS)。
The so-called «nationalities» problem of Russia and former republics of the Soviet Union has often been used as a weapon by the CIA and its front organizations and supporters. Dobriansky once thundered to Congress about places most Americans never heard of in his plan to bring about ethnic tension in Eurasia. Dobriansky ridiculed U.S, commentators for asking, «Where is White Ruthenia? Where is Cossackia?» He added, «Many admitted they never heard of Idel-Ural or Azerbaijan or even Turkestan».
Today, Dobriansky's heirs, including his daughter Paula Dobriansky, a Bush administration State Department official and ardent neo-conservative, are raising the bloody shirt for Western intervention in Ukraine and the Russian Federation… Their rhetoric is as inane and silly today as it was during the 1950s and 60s when their forefathers only found allies in right-wing extremists, aging movie stars like Ronald Reagan and Adolphe Menjou, and ex-Nazis.
俄羅斯和前蘇聯加盟共和國的所謂“民族”問題經常被中央情報局及其掩護組織和支持者用作武器。 多布里安斯基曾向國會猛烈抨擊他在歐亞大陸引發種族緊張局勢的計劃中大多數美國人從未聽說過的地方。 Dobriansky 嘲笑美國，評論員問：“White Ruthenia 在哪裡？ 哥薩克在哪裡？» 他補充說，“許多人承認他們從未聽說過 Idel-Ural 或阿塞拜疆甚至土耳其斯坦”。
今天，多布里揚斯基的繼承人，包括他的女兒保拉多布里揚斯基，布什政府國務院官員和狂熱的新保守主義者，正在為西方乾預烏克蘭和俄羅斯聯邦舉起血淋淋的襯衫...... 1950 年代和 60 年代，他們的祖先只能在右翼極端分子、羅納德里根和阿道夫門茹等年邁的電影明星以及前納粹分子中找到盟友。
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新冠、美國、烏克蘭、生化武器
(1)美媒曝德特里克堡真相
(2)烏克蘭 新納粹 CIA
(3)塞爾維亞列出美國北約侵略國家
(4)新冠與羅斯福號航母
(5)Azov Ukraine 香港暴動
(6)美國和烏克蘭人權?
(7)北約轟炸南斯拉夫中國大使館，台灣抗議
(8)高雄前鎮家樂福暴力烏克蘭男
(9)烏克蘭版的228
(10)烏克蘭的生化實驗室
11)DONBASS紀錄片
12)Jacques Baud 馮建三譯 -俄烏戰爭的資訊戰
13)致死率80%！美研發「人工變異株」 專家怒：根本玩火
14) 瑞典要提供烏克蘭JAS 和在烏克蘭建立CV-90工廠
15)瓦格納高層被團滅
16)Mitt Romney 說要把烏克蘭人當砲灰
17)《俄烏衝突一年半》論壇
18)烏克蘭人命比不上武器彈藥
19)香港黑暴與亞述營
1)https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV14h411q7L5/
美媒曝德特里克堡真相
2)
1.美國與烏克蘭新納粹的關係，連美國自己都心知肚明。幾年前也看過美國媒體的關於美國自己養虎為患的報導，其中包括烏克蘭的新納粹。
2.Such trainning and activities are interesting and attractive (especially for young people), but it shouldn't turn extreme and be used on mistreating, torture, oppression and terrorist attack.
People feel strange that why young people in Europe joined ISIS, the reason is the same.
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TIME reported "Like, share, recruit: How a white-supremacist militia uses Facebook to radicalize and train new members." in 11 Jan. 2021.
2021年1月，時代雜誌就已經報導了烏克蘭的亞述營是如何成立與壯大的。
4. The US and Ukraine are the only two countries vote against anti-Nazism in UNGA. I felt strange about it, now I know the reason.
美國和烏克蘭是聯合國大會當中，唯二的兩個拒絕譴責納粹主義、新納粹主義和其他種族主義行為的國家。一查之下，果然從2015年開始，CIA就在訓練烏克蘭的新納粹份子。
The CIA May Be Breeding Nazi Terror in Ukraine :
https://jacobin.com/2022/01/cia-neo-nazi-training-ukraine-russia-putin-biden-nato
“The US government has a well-documented history of backing extremist groups as part of a panoply of foreign policy misadventures, which inevitably end up blowing up in the American public’s face. In the 1960s, the CIA worked with Cuban anti–Fidel Castro radicals who turned Miami into a hub of terrorist violence. In the 1980s, the agency supported and encouraged Islamic radicals converging in Afghanistan, who would go on to orchestrate the September 11 attack. And, in the 2010s, Washington backed Syria’s not-so-“moderate” rebels who ended up cutting a swath of atrocities through civilians and the Kurdish forces that were meant to be US allies.”
Based on a new report, it looks like we may soon be able to add another to that list of fatally unlearned lessons: Ukrainian neo-Nazis.
“美國政府在支持極端主義團體方面有著有據可查的歷史，這是一系列外交政策失誤的一部分，這些失誤最終不可避免地會在美國公眾面前爆發。 在 1960 年代，中央情報局與古巴反菲德爾卡斯特羅激進分子合作，他們將邁阿密變成了恐怖主義暴力的中心。 在 1980 年代，該機構支持並鼓勵伊斯蘭激進分子聚集在阿富汗，他們將繼續策劃 9 月 11 日的襲擊。 而且，在 2010 年代，華盛頓支持敘利亞不那麼“溫和”的叛亂分子，他們最終通過平民和本應成為美國盟友的庫爾德武裝實施了一系列暴行。”
根據一份新報告，看起來我們可能很快就能在致命的未吸取教訓列表中添加另一個：烏克蘭新納粹分子。
According to a recent Yahoo! News report, since 2015, the CIA has been secretly training forces in Ukraine to serve as “insurgent leaders,” in the words of one former intelligence official, in case Russia ends up invading the country. Current officials are claiming the training is purely for intelligence collection, but the former officials Yahoo! spoke to said the program involved training in firearms, “cover and move,” and camouflage, among other things.
Given the facts, there’s a good chance that the CIA is training actual, literal Nazis as part of this effort. The year the program started, 2015, also happened to be the same year that Congress passed a spending bill that featured hundreds of millions of dollars’ worth of economic and military support for Ukraine, one that was expressly modified to allow that support to flow to the country’s resident neo-Nazi militia, the Azov Regiment. According to the Nation at the time, the text of the bill passed in the middle of that year featured an amendment explicitly barring “arms, training, and other assistance” to Azov, but the House committee in charge of the bill was pressured by the Pentagon months later to remove the language, falsely telling them it was redundant.
根據最近的雅虎！ 新聞報導，自 2015 年以來，中央情報局一直在烏克蘭秘密訓練部隊，用一位前情報官員的話說，充當“叛亂領袖”，以防俄羅斯最終入侵該國。 現任官員聲稱培訓純粹是為了收集情報，但前任官員雅虎！ 接受采訪時說，該計劃涉及槍支訓練、“掩護和移動”以及偽裝等。
鑑於事實，作為這項工作的一部分，中央情報局很有可能正在訓練真正的納粹分子。 該計劃啟動的那一年，即 2015 年，也恰好是國會通過一項支出法案的同一年，該法案向烏克蘭提供價值數億美元的經濟和軍事支持，該法案經過明確修改以允許該支持流向 該國駐紮的新納粹民兵亞速軍團。 據當時的《國家報》報導，當年年中通過的法案文本有一項修正案，明確禁止向亞速提供“武器、訓練和其他援助”，但負責該法案的眾議院委員會受到壓力 五角大樓幾個月後刪除了該語言，錯誤地告訴他們這是多餘的。
Despite sometimes open acknowledgement of its Nazism — its former commander once said the “historic mission” of Ukraine is to “lead the White Races of the world in a final crusade for their survival” in “a crusade against the Semite-led Untermenschen” — Azov was incorporated into the country’s National Guard in 2014, owing to its effectiveness in fighting Russian separatists. US arms have flowed to the militia, NATO and US military officials have been pictured meeting with them, and members of the militia have talked about their work with US trainers and the lack of background screening to weed out white supremacists.
Given all this, it would be more of a surprise that the neo-Nazis of Azov haven’t been trained in the CIA’s clandestine make-an-insurgency program. And we’re already seeing the early signs of blowback.
儘管有時會公開承認其納粹主義——其前任指揮官曾表示，烏克蘭的“歷史使命”是“領導世界上的白種人為生存而進行最後的十字軍東征”，“對閃米特領導的下層人民進行十字軍東征”—— 由於其在打擊俄羅斯分裂分子方面的有效性，亞速號於 2014 年被編入該國的國民警衛隊。 美國武器流向了民兵，北約和美國軍方官員被拍到與他們會面，民兵成員談到了他們與美國教員的合作，以及缺乏背景審查以清除白人至上主義者。
考慮到這一切，如果亞速的新納粹分子沒有接受過中央情報局秘密製造叛亂計劃的訓練，那就更令人驚訝了。 我們已經看到反吹的早期跡象。
“A number of prominent individuals among far-right extremist groups in the United States and Europe have actively sought out relationships with representatives of the far-right in Ukraine, specifically the National Corps and its associated militia, the Azov Regiment,” states a 2020 report from the West Point US Military Academy’s Combating Terrorism Center. “US-based individuals have spoken or written about how the training available in Ukraine might assist them and others in their paramilitary-style activities at home.”
A 2018 FBI affidavit asserted that Azov “is believed to have participated in training and radicalizing United States–based white supremacy organizations,” including members of the white supremacist Rise Above Movement, prosecuted for planned assaults on counterprotesters at far-right events, including the Charlottesville “Unite the Right” rally that Joe Biden later co-opted as a rationale for his presidential campaign. While it seems the perpetrator of the Christchurch mosque massacre didn’t travel to Ukraine as he claimed, he clearly took inspiration from the far-right movement there, and wore a symbol used by Azov members while carrying out the attack.
“美國和歐洲極右翼極端組織中的一些知名人士積極尋求與烏克蘭極右翼代表的關係，特別是國民兵團及其相關民兵亞速軍團，”2020 年的一份報告稱 來自美國西點軍校反恐中心的報告。 “居住在美國的人已經說過或寫過烏克蘭提供的培訓如何幫助他們和其他人在國內進行準軍事活動。”
聯邦調查局 2018 年的一份宣誓書稱，亞速“據信參與了美國白人至上組織的培訓和激進化”，其中包括白人至上主義者“超越運動”的成員，他們因計劃在極右翼事件中襲擊反抗議者而被起訴，包括 夏洛茨維爾的“團結右翼”集會，喬·拜登後來將其作為他競選總統的理由。 雖然克賴斯特徹奇清真寺大屠殺的肇事者似乎並沒有像他聲稱的那樣前往烏克蘭，但他顯然是從那裡的極右翼運動中獲得靈感，並在進行襲擊時佩戴了亞速社成員使用的標誌。
Since taking office, Biden has launched an incipient domestic “war on terror” on the basis of combating far-right extremism, even though the strategy is quietly aiming to target left-wing protesters and activists, something it has already done. Yet at the same time, three separate administrations, Biden’s included, have been providing training, weapons, and equipment to the very far-right movement that’s inspiring and even training those same white supremacists.
拜登上任以來，以打擊極右翼極端主義為基礎，在國內發起了一場初步的“反恐戰爭”，儘管該戰略悄悄地瞄準了左翼抗議者和活動人士，這已經在做。 然而與此同時，包括拜登在內的三個獨立政府一直在為極右翼運動提供培訓、武器和設備，該運動鼓舞甚至訓練了同樣的白人至上主義者。
dding to the absurdity here is that the reason Washington has been giving Ukrainian Nazis its assistance is so they can serve as a bulwark against Russia, which war hawks liken, as they always do, to Adolph Hitler’s regime and its expansion through Europe in the 1930s. While Vladimir Putin’s Russia may be a malevolent actor on a number of fronts, Putin’s recent incursions into neighboring states like Ukraine are driven largely by the expansion of the NATO military alliance up to his borders and the security implications that come with it.
In other words, to stop what US hawks classify as the next Hitler and Nazi Germany, Washington has been backing literal neo-Nazi militias in Ukraine, who are in turn communicating with and training homegrown white supremacists, which Washington in turn is ramping up a menacing repressive bureaucracy at home to counter. It’s what some have called the “self-licking ice cream cone” in action — the US national security establishment creating the very threats that justify itself. Instead of defusing the tensions by simply agreeing to long-standing Russian demands to set a hard limit on NATO’s eastward expansion, Washington has apparently decided that unlimited planetary military dominion is so important that it would rather just get into bed with actual fascists.
The US alliance with Nazi-infected Ukraine has already proven awkward for a president who is both trying to strike a contrast with his far-right predecessor and establish the United States as the leader of a global effort to strengthen democracy. Late last year, in a vote that went completely unreported in the press, the United States was one of just two countries (the other being Ukraine) to vote against a UN draft resolution “combating glorification of Nazism, neo-Nazism and other practices that contribute to fueling contemporary forms of racism.” Both countries have consistently voted against this resolution every single year since 2014.
The Biden administration deployed a nearly identical, boilerplate explanation for its no vote that Donald Trump had used, citing the constitutional right to free speech even for those with repugnant views. But this concern is hard to square with the text, which simply expresses concern about public memorials, demonstrations, and rehabilitation of the Nazis, condemns Holocaust denial and hate violence, and calls on governments to eliminate racism through education and addressing far-right terrorist threats — all roughly the same as Biden’s own rhetoric and policies.
Washington’s real concern here lies in its description of the resolution as “thinly veiled attempts to legitimize Russian disinformation campaigns denigrating neighboring nations” — meaning Ukraine. But Ukraine’s connections to modern Nazism are far from Russian fake news, and are in fact extensive and well-documented: from Azov’s official incorporation into the ranks of Ukrainian law enforcement and government officials with far-right ties to state-sponsored tributes to Nazi collaborators and promotion of Holocaust denial.
It’s no small irony that the US president, elected in large part to halt the perceived march of fascism at home, is continuing long-standing US support for literal Nazis in what might well be the nexus of international fascism. And if these Ukrainian Nazis really are among the insurgents being trained by the CIA, it will be no small tragedy if they one day take the same career trajectory as Osama bin Laden.
更荒謬的是，華盛頓一直向烏克蘭納粹分子提供援助的原因是，他們可以作為對抗俄羅斯的堡壘，戰爭鷹派一如既往地將俄羅斯比作阿道夫希特勒的政權及其在 1930 年代在歐洲的擴張 . 雖然弗拉基米爾·普京領導的俄羅斯可能在許多方面都是一個惡毒的角色，但普京最近對烏克蘭等鄰國的入侵主要是由於北約軍事聯盟向他的邊界擴張以及隨之而來的安全影響。
換句話說，為了阻止美國鷹派人士將其歸類為下一個希特勒和納粹德國，華盛頓一直在支持烏克蘭的真正的新納粹民兵，這些民兵反過來與本土白人至上主義者進行交流和訓練，而華盛頓反過來又在加強 威脅國內的壓制性官僚主義來反擊。 這就是一些人所說的“自舔冰淇淋甜筒”在起作用——美國國家安全機構製造的威脅正是為自己辯護的理由。 華盛頓並沒有通過簡單地同意俄羅斯長期以來對北約向東擴張設定硬性限制的要求來緩和緊張局勢，華盛頓顯然已經決定，無限的行星軍事統治是如此重要，以至於它寧願與真正的法西斯主義者上床。
美國與受納粹感染的烏克蘭的聯盟已經證明對一位總統來說很尷尬，他既試圖與其極右翼前任形成鮮明對比，又想讓美國成為全球加強民主努力的領導者。 去年年底，在一次完全沒有被媒體報導的投票中，美國是僅有的兩個國家之一（另一個是烏克蘭）投票反對聯合國決議草案“打擊美化納粹主義、新納粹主義和其他行為”。 助長了當代形式的種族主義。” 自 2014 年以來，兩國每年都對這項決議投反對票。
拜登政府對其不投票採用了與唐納德特朗普所使用的幾乎相同的樣板解釋，理由是憲法賦予言論自由的權利，即使對於那些持反對意見的人也是如此。 但這種擔憂很難與文本相吻合，文本只是表達了對納粹的公共紀念、示威和恢復原狀的擔憂，譴責否認大屠殺和仇恨暴力，並呼籲各國政府通過教育和應對極右翼恐怖主義威脅來消除種族主義 - 與拜登自己的言論和政策大致相同。
華盛頓在這裡真正的擔憂在於，它將該決議描述為“試圖使俄羅斯誹謗鄰國的虛假宣傳活動合法化”——指的是烏克蘭。 但烏克蘭與現代納粹主義的聯繫遠非俄羅斯的假新聞，事實上廣泛且有據可查：從亞速正式加入烏克蘭執法和政府官員的行列與極右翼聯繫到國家贊助的對納粹合作者的致敬 和宣傳否認大屠殺。
具有諷刺意味的是，美國總統當選在很大程度上是為了阻止國內法西斯主義的行進，而美國總統仍在繼續長期支持名副其實的納粹分子，而這很可能是國際法西斯主義的紐帶。 如果這些烏克蘭納粹分子真的是中央情報局正在訓練的叛亂分子之一，那麼如果他們有一天走上與奧薩馬·本·拉登相同的職業軌跡，那將是一個不小的悲劇。
5. CIA 美國與納粹
https://ips-dc.org/the_cias_worst-kept_secret_newly_declassified_files_confirm_united_states_collaboration_with_nazis/
6.
US, Ukraine vote against anti-Nazism UNGA resolution
https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-ukraine-vote-against-anti-nazism-unga-resolution
CIA's Use of Nazi Strategy on Ukrainian Right-Wing Nationalists Unabated since Cold War
https://www.derechos.org/peace/russia/doc/ukrusa21.html
(找到2014年2月20日的報導，原來那個慷慨激昂抗俄的烏克蘭前拳擊手市長，是新納粹份子，和美國政府以及歐盟關係密切。)
https://ips-dc.org/the_cias_worst-kept_secret_newly_declassified_files_confirm_united_states_collaboration_with_nazis/
The CIA May Be Breeding Nazi Terror in Ukraine
https://jacobinmag.com/2022/01/cia-neo-nazi-training-ukraine-russia-putin-biden-nato
CIA-trained Ukrainian paramilitaries may take central role if Russia invades
https://www.yahoo.com/news/cia-trained-ukrainian-paramilitaries-may-take-central-role-if-russia-invades-185258008.html
烏克蘭政府與新納粹的關係(2014)
https://foreignpolicy.com/2014/03/18/yes-there-are-bad-guys-in-the-ukrainian-government/
给乌克兰军队捐款？连美国人都意识到了这里面有个“大坑”！
https://world.huanqiu.com/article/4706WRQ3KrW
Azov Far-right Movement
https://time.com/5926750/azov-far-right-movement-facebook/
Profile: Who are Ukraine’s far-right Azov regiment?
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/3/1/who-are-the-azov-regiment
7. CIA 在冷戰期間招募納粹份子
Nazis In The CIA
https://youtu.be/MxIj8M36wkk
8.路透社-烏克蘭的新納粹問題 2018/3/20
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-cohen-ukraine-commentary-idUKKBN1GV2TY
3)美國這是在匡扶烏克蘭，還是在誆烏克蘭？
Is the US trying to help Ukraine, or is it trying to deceive Ukraine?
這幅諷刺漫畫所畫的背景，是3月17日歐洲聯賽當中，列出美國以及北約侵略過的國家、地區的名單，最後提出最重要的訴求：Give Peace a Chance.
世界各地很多的紛亂，始作俑者都是美國。
https://www.guancha.cn/internation/2022_03_18_630896.shtml
然後西方媒體不敢報導，不然就是抹黑塞爾維亞。
影片網址：https://youtu.be/XdN_eVODRfo
4)一個世界級的大問題：
美國羅斯福號航空母艦的很多水手確診感染新冠肺炎，他們是從哪裡感染的呢？
這太蹊蹺了......
比百慕達還神秘的蹊蹺！
這條航空母艦可是絕對不許中國人登上的吧！
而且2020年一月它已經離開美國本土，航行在太平洋上。
難道病毒會隨海風刮幾千公里，從中國刮到美國航母上？
5)
https://news.tvbs.com.tw/world/1243758
激進主義烏克蘭人現身反送中 警方關注 2019/12/4
https://sg.news.yahoo.com/far-ukrainian-activists-were-only-111108451.html 2019/12/4
Far-right Ukrainian activists say they were ‘only in Hong Kong for protest tourism’ as concerns grow they could help authorities delegitimise movement
https://inf.news/en/military/72922b427f775118abd8cc244b8d5c2d.html
Remember that Ukrainian neo-Nazis are not far from us 2022-04-13
6)https://ynews.page.link/U3Ej
偏偏美國指控中國的罪狀，烏克蘭都幹過
美國是制度性的種族歧視，看看關島原住民沒有投票權？亞裔不斷被挑釁、傷害、黑人在大街上被警察弄死⋯，美國還是先管好自己國內內政和流浪漢、失業、通膨等問題吧！美國土地肥沃天然資源豐富，已經是上天給予最好的禮物，別太貪婪一直想爆賺戰爭財！
(7)United States bombed the Chinese embassy in Belgrade in 1999. People in Taiwan protested against it in front of AIT(American Institute in Taiwan)
https://youtu.be/1FUitKhLnvk
(8)想到這個暴力烏克蘭男，行為很像新納粹。
I doubt the Ukrainian guy might be a neo-nazi. His behavior is like those guys - violent, with racism and disrespect for women. It's the rule here to wear mask. If it's like what you claimed that you have been in Taiwan for 5 years, why don't you know that?
https://youtu.be/kZ9ADOv-yy8
高雄前鎮家樂福的職員講的是甚麼鬼話？防疫規定就是要戴口罩，看到是白皮膚外國人就跪了？
https://youtu.be/e_y0CpdqVDc
https://ptt-web.com/Kaohsiung/l/WEB.M.1615559671.A.B28
(9)https://reurl.cc/7Dkb3y
殺害親俄派
(10)不要搞到最後，大家才發現，原來普京才是正義之師。
Maybe people will find that Putin is the on the side of justice eventually...
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-10652127/Hunter-Biden-helped-secure-millions-funding-military-biotech-research-program-Ukraine.html
http://www.koreaherald.com/view.php?ud=20190415000701
https://www.globaltimes.cn/page/202204/1260665.shtml
11)很真實，也很驚心動魄的紀錄片，請小心觀看。
A very real and thrilling documentary. I watched it couple years ago.
我老公問我：難道你認為烏克蘭應該割讓一部分國土嗎？
我的回答是：這不是割讓，既然烏克蘭不愛這些人，對他們展開屠殺、迫害、文化滅絕，那就放他們自由吧！
https://youtu.be/6Oh-IE2zmJc
這裡有中文字幕：
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV1Z3411V727/
DONBASS - Zeke asked me whether I think Ukraine should lose a part of their terriory, my answe is: since Ukraine doesn't like those people, it's better to let them become independent.
People there have suffered so much in the past 8 years - oppression, slaughter, genocide and cultural genocide. They fought for themselves bravely. Since Russia comes to help them, that's good to set them free.
12)我們還是看被同儕驗證過的文獻
烏俄戰爭媒體報導資訊餵/灌食問題嚴重，許多西方獨立記者言論自由遭到箝制。政大新聞系馮建三老師一篇文章及一篇譯文非常值得細讀。全文可至《傳播文化與政治》下載：
http://ccp.twmedia.org/第十五期全本下載/
Jacques Baud
https://scheerpost.com/2022/04/08/jacques-baud-on-us-eu-sacrificing-ukraine-to-weaken-russia-video/
13)致死率80%！美研發「人工變異株」 專家怒：根本玩火
https://ynews.page.link/pr4WT
14)瑞典加入北約
國際之間沒有真正的朋友，只有利益的交換。”朋友”之說，只是天真的想像。而且所謂的”朋友”，極可能就是出賣你，把你推入泥沼的人。
加入北約，很可能會是瑞典日後最後悔的決定。這個決定所可能造成的後果：
本來不是敵人的也變成了敵人 – 放棄中立國的地位，加入一個意見與利益各自分歧的團體，真的保障自己？普丁是個親西方的領導人，曾經很努力要加入西方的陣營，數度嘗試加入北約，但是都被美國拒絕。(美國拒絕的原因，我以後會說)
犧牲本國人民的福利，用人民的稅金來替美國付帳單，替美國減少財政壓力。美國共和黨已經不願意繼續無限制地資助烏克蘭，這時候剛好有芬蘭和瑞典來幫美國出錢，讓烏克蘭人替美國繼續犧牲下去。
庫德族再度被出賣，有被恐攻的隱憂，並且造成更多的種族對立。隨著芬蘭、瑞典與土耳其三國的利益交換，庫德人的建國之路更崎嶇滄桑。會採取恐怖行動的，是力量遠不平衡的弱勢一方。
隨著政府財政吃緊，社會福利減少，治安有惡化的隱憂，而從烏克蘭流出的軍火，在黑市越來越多。
瑞典的媒體非常高度的親美，幾乎一切都是美國政府觀點。我不禁好奇：就算不去看其他訊息來源，難道沒有人看得出來這些新聞間的矛盾之處？難道沒有人發覺這當中明顯的雙重標準？他們思考的能力到哪裡去了？
是誰讓這場本來不應該發生的衝突發生的？
是誰逼迫讓這場衝突越來越血腥？
美國要提供集束炸彈給烏克蘭，最後這些集束炸彈會留在烏克蘭的土地上，難以清理。
同樣的，美國不賣給台灣我們需要的武器，卻要我們買連波蘭都不要買的火山布雷車。這些地雷會存在我們的土地上，而不是美國。
越戰期間美國在寮國和越南投下了2.4億顆集束彈藥，有8000萬顆殘留在那邊，直到現在依然造成當地人民的傷亡。
美國不在乎打仗打到連最後一個烏克蘭人都不剩下，他們更願意讓烏克蘭為他們流乾最後一滴血。
所以，如果台海兩岸不幸發生衝突，請北約各國高抬貴手，千萬不要插手，提供軍事武器給我們。我們不願意當北約的砲灰。
美國本來是要在亞太地區放火，2021年5月，The Economist經濟學人的封面居然是台灣，寫著”The most dangerous place on Earth”，塑造台灣海峽兩岸就要開戰的氛圍，沒想到PRC沒有上當，反而是歐洲先起火了 – 美國說要讓烏克蘭加入北約，一再拒絕俄羅斯的談判要求，最後烏克蘭集結重兵，即將對頓巴斯地區展開致命性攻擊，於是展開戰爭序幕。
亞洲許多國家都被美國出賣過，明白北約不是甚麼好東西，更知道美國才是引發俄烏戰爭的幕後黑手，所以東協和中東對於北約是抱持著冷淡甚至反對的態度。日本與韓國只有執政黨對於北約熱衷，老百姓卻在發動反北約的遊行。
這場戰爭繼續下去，恐怕會蔓延到整個歐洲；而美國天高皇帝遠，歐洲成了廢墟也不干他的事。美國政客已經得到他們想要的：
選票 – 長期的冷戰思維已經成為慣性，對抗俄國是政治正確，可以移轉國內人民對於經濟下滑、基礎設施落後的不滿。
軍工複合體大發利市，而這些軍火商正是政黨的大金主，這也是為什麼美國要在世界各地挑起戰爭。
低價買進烏克蘭的土地、資源、礦產、農產品.
北約復活，美國增加對歐洲的控制力
這些都是淺顯易見的事情，John Mearsheimer也說過這些事情，但是許多短視的人看不到，更有許多人明明知道這些道理，卻不敢說、不敢做。也幸好華盛頓聽不進John Mearsheimer 的話，亞洲才得以有和平與發展。
朋友問我幹嘛這麼擔心歐洲？戰爭留在歐洲，美國無力在亞洲興風作浪，亞洲就安全了。但是我有家人和朋友在歐洲啊！
14)https://youtu.be/mfeiZA5QAX0
Watching the EU and NATO rip themselves apart over Ukraine and Russia is absolutely hilarious.
It is a blessing to pray that NATO and the EU self destruct, however, for the sake of humanity and peace.
看著歐盟和北約因烏克蘭和俄羅斯問題而分裂真是太搞笑了。
然而，為了人類與和平，祈禱北約和歐盟自我毀滅是一種祝福。
Not only Ukraine but also the new European countries such as the Baltic states, Poland are constantly trying to pull the entire NATO into the war, the entire Europe may be forced to be involved in the war. It seems the Third World War will still break out in Europe.
Isn't it strange that the hope of seizing the war is always destroyed whenever there is an opportunity for peace?
不僅是烏克蘭，波羅的海國家、波蘭等新歐洲國家都在不斷試圖將整個北約拉入戰爭，整個歐洲都可能被迫捲入戰爭。 看來第三次世界大戰仍將在歐洲爆發。
每當有和平契機的時候，這局面總是被破壞，這不是很奇怪嗎？
Why does the United States itself not provide Ukraine F-16, but asks European countries to do it?
為什麼美國自己不提供烏克蘭F-16，卻要歐洲國家提供？
15)From what I posted in the morning on 25 Aug. (when I was in Intelligent Asia 2023. )
美國和歐洲非常擔心俄羅斯會搶走他們在非洲的蛋糕。 俄羅斯不方便直接干預非洲事務（例如尚未承認尼日爾新政府），因此瓦格納是俄羅斯外交部的重要工具。 最近尼日爾政變中大量民眾揮舞俄羅斯國旗，引起西方殖民集團（包括歐洲殖民主義和美國新殖民主義）的極大緊張。
西方世界殖民非洲和中東的方式就是支持少數民族統治多數。 為了避免政權被推翻，這些少數群體不得不嚴重依賴外國勢力，而他們自己也成為了外國政權的傀儡政府。
通過支持少數民族來統治殖民地是殖民者的常用手段。 比如，在政變中被推翻的是佔尼日爾總人口不到1%的阿拉伯人。
矛盾的是，作為前殖民者，俄羅斯現在卻成為非洲人民反殖民的希望。
歐洲在非洲的殖民地普遍貧窮落後。 殖民者幾乎只關心從這些殖民地榨取資源，而無意建設自己的殖民地。
The United States and Europe are very afraid that Russia will take their cake in Africa. It is inconvenient for Russia to directly intervene in the affairs in Africa (for example, it has not yet recognized the new government of Niger), therefore Wagner is an important tool of the Russian Foreign Ministry. A large number of people waved the Russian flag in the recent coup in Niger, which caused great tension in the Western colonial group (including Europe's colonialism and USA's Neocolonialism).
The way the Western world colonizes Africa and the Middle East is to support ethnic minorities to rule the majority. In order to keep the regime from being overthrown, these minority groups have to rely heavily on foreign powers, and they themselves have become their puppet governments of those foerign regime.
It is a common method for colonists to rule colonies by supporting minorities. For example, those who were overthrown in the coup are Arabs who accounted for less than 1% of the total population in Niger.
Paradoxically as a former colonizer, Russia is now the anti-colonial hope of the African people.
European colonies in Africa were generally poor and backward. The colonists are almost only interested in squeezing the resources from those colonies, and have no intention of building their colonies.
https://en.mehrnews.com/news/205254/US-senator-cheers-hurting-Russia-at-cost-of-Ukrainian-lives
The United States is using Ukrainians as pawns/cannon fodders for sure. They eager to copy the stratagy to Taiwan.
“Russia being weakened weakens their ally China,” Mitt Romney said. “And by the way, being able to take an amount that equals about 5% of our military budget . . . to help the Ukrainians is about the best national defense spending I think we’ve ever done.”
"We're losing no lives in Ukraine, and the Ukrainians are fighting heroically against Russia... So we are diminishing and devastating the Russian military for a very small amount of money"
First, he reversed causation. China has suffered a lot from Russia before, and the two countries are cautious about each other. It is the war pushed them together - along with Iran, North Korea and many other smaller countries.
Second, he shows how cruel and evil the United States is (and how stupid Europeans are). He is not the first or second American told the truth. (Should we praise them as honest politicians?)
Filled with such politicians, it's no wonder the United States of America is declining.
17)《俄烏衝突一年半》論壇
鹏城杰森参与的俄乌冲突一年半总结论坛
https://youtu.be/pKsNcOJA8wE?si=E95i-Vdb0XFGEo7Y
https://www.bilibili.com/video/BV15h4y1T7MV/?share_source=copy_web&vd_source=35aadab3efc7f55a5f0164f43f7fca3e
Brian是退伍军人，所以评价也偏向军政方面。Brian强调了俄乌冲突本质是代理人战争（proxy war），且现在战事的根源是2014年以来烏克蘭内部两方的斗争，而且乌西一直在攻击乌东。Brian认为随着乌的反攻失败，以米为首的西方集团会倾向“冻结”（缓和）这一斗争。
Alex在这次论坛中表现的最有趣。他提到自己的老婆是立陶宛俄族人，这使得他的观点也偏向民族主义。他认为即使在反俄最激烈的波罗的海三国中，也存在许多俄族的“二等人”，而乌东也是因为这些人所以才会和乌西有矛盾。这使得他的观点较为激进，认为俄乌冲突将进行下去而难以调和。
Mike则从国际关系和地缘政治的方面解读了这个问题。鉴于Mike教授的身份，Mike的发言最具有学术性。其中较为关键的内容我认为是2条，其一是虽然俄所为之事也称不上正当，但恐俄症本身是由西方媒体通过民族主义和排外思想建构的；其二是在以金砖国家为主体的、追寻新多极秩序的国家中，普遍的思想是认为美國虽然不再作为单极，但仍是强多极中的一个；但美國自身不论是不愿还是不能，都在竭力保证自己的单极地位，任何妥协成为多级的努力都会被认为是反美。这种矛盾也正是Mike推崇的建构主义与杰哥引据的米尔斯海默推崇的现实主义之间的矛盾。
杰哥的观点则如观众们熟知的那样，围绕战线进行展开。杰哥认为乌的反攻行动将会在两个月内因为损失惨重停止，而俄则会进行反攻。但是由于完整打下乌东4州需要付出大量的人力，且俄能否在被制裁的前提下长期维持其战时经济也需要观望（虽然当前制裁体现的效果不显著），所以俄是否有决心继续推进也需要观望。
最后是Lasse在回答杰哥问题的时候，提到西方的研究机构实际上在2013年就有预测到今日的事态发展，美國早在那时就想通过在乌挑起冲突，激起俄力保克里米亚而削弱自己。（Lasse提到自己曾在能源公司工作，亲眼看过高盛出具的分析报告）在西方看来，把俄國和欧洲分裂开来，比把俄推向兔子(中國)重要。
https://www.znzfws.com/d/47701
18)
華盛頓郵報》再一次批評烏克蘭武裝部隊，報導引用了五角大樓高級官員的意見。 美國國防部認為烏克蘭人浪費了太多砲彈，卻毫無效果，為進攻提供砲兵支援是資產上的過度浪費，因為烏克蘭武裝部隊已經用掉了超過200萬發155毫米彈藥，這幾乎已經耗盡了西方的庫存。
因此，五角大廈認為沒有必要在俄羅斯的防禦工事和障礙上花費砲彈，因為與這些砲彈是需要花錢的。
此外，五角大廈的官員敦促烏克蘭減少對無人機偵察的依賴。 不，這並不是玩笑。 美國國防部認為這種四軸飛行器的主要製造商是中國，而且價格也相當昂貴，它們在積極反制的條件下“生存”的時間很短。 因此，美國軍方官員不想要在烏克蘭武裝部隊上花費額外的資金，這意味著間接支持中國無人機製造商。
作為沒有靈魂的無人機的替代品，美國人建議將偵察的重點放在派出地面偵察部隊上。
是的，建議用幾十名比較「便宜」的烏軍代替一架昂貴的大彊無人機。 這是一種偉大想法。
The Washington Post again criticized Ukraine's armed forces, citing senior Pentagon officials in the report. The U.S. Department of Defense believes that the Ukrainians have wasted too many artillery shells with no effect. Providing artillery support is an excessive waste of assets, because the Ukrainian armed forces have used more than 2 million rounds of 155 mm ammunition, which is almost exhausted the western world's stocks. Therefore, the Pentagon does not see the need to spend shells on Russian fortifications and barriers, because shells cost money.
Additionally, Pentagon officials have urged Ukraine to reduce its reliance on the drones for surveillance. No, this is not a joke. The U.S. Department of Defense believes that the main manufacturer of those quadcopters is China, and they are quite expensive. They have very short "survival" time under active counterattacks. As a result, U.S. military officials do not want to spend extra money on the Ukrainian Armed Forces because it means indirectly supporting Chinese drone manufacturers. As an alternative to those soulless drones, the Americans propose to replace them with sending ground reconnaissance troops.
Yes, they recommended to replace one expensive drones with dozens of "cheaper" Ukrainian troops. They think it is a great idea.
Hope other countries don't fuel up the fire once we have military conflict with China. We don't need your weapons.
美國先是要求前蘇聯國家掏光家底，把俄式武器都交給烏克蘭；之後美國也要求歐洲國家拿他們的武器出來給烏克蘭，美國再拿出一些自家的閹割版給烏克蘭，確保戰爭只發生在烏克蘭的土地上，風險才不致外溢，引發世界大戰。於是一時之間各種 wonder weapons 出現在烏克蘭的土地上，把烏克蘭的土地打個稀爛。但是這些wonder weapons 保鮮期都短於2個月，比如 TB2、M777、HIMARS、Leopard 2、Storm Shadow、Challanger... 無一不是如此。打到現在，美國居然把貧鈾彈、會造成平民大量傷亡的 cluster munition 提供給烏克蘭。
而美國在台灣玩的把戲，完全如出一轍，如果兩岸發生戰爭，台灣就會變成到處是地雷、未爆彈的土地，台灣的平民將會死傷慘重！更慘的是，台灣是個海島，一旦開戰，老百姓要逃無處可逃，外國軍援也難以進入，加上我們有民進黨主導、自尋死路的能源政策，台灣人民將會生活在極度艱困的日子裡。就算戰爭停止，未爆彈、地雷到處都是，將會繼續殺戮住在這片土地上的人民。
很嚴肅的話題，但是看到這張圖片還是很想笑....XD
The United States first asked the former Soviet countries to hand over their Russian weapons to Ukraine; then the United States also asked European countries to give their weapons, the United States also supplied some of their weapons in emasculated versions to Ukraine to ensure that the war would only occur on the land of Ukraine, and risks will not "spill out" and trigger a world war. So various wonder weapons appeared on the land of Ukraine and seriously destroyed there. However, the shelf life of these wonder weapons is shorter than 2 months, such as TB2, M777, HIMARS, Leopard 2, Storm Shadow, Challenger... all of them are like this. The United States even provided Ukraine with depleted uranium ammunition and cluster munitions that can cause massive civilian casualties.
The tricks played by the United States in Taiwan are exactly the same. If there is a war between Taiwan and China, Taiwan will become a land full of landmines and unexploded bombs, Taiwanese civilians will suffer heavy casualties. What's even worse is that Taiwan is an island. Once a war breaks out, ordinary people will have nowhere to escape, and it will be difficult for foreign military aid to enter. In addition, we have a self-destructive energy policy led by the Democratic Progressive Party (DDP). People in Taiwan will live in extremely hard conditions. Even if the war stops, unexploded bombs and landmines will be everywhere and will continue to kill the people living on this land.
It's a serious topic, but I still want to laugh when I see this picture....XD
19)
Who says that there is no Neo-Nazi in Ukraine? Our media reported about it in 2019 already. They showed up in Hong Kong and trained the mobs. It's CIA, MI6 behind it.
鑒於有瑞典人跟我說烏克蘭沒有新納粹，我拿這個給他看，他又說："到處都有新納粹"
我說："這些新納粹到香港訓練暴徒"
瑞典人說："你說香港暴徒是新納粹？"
我："這些香港暴徒是被這些新納粹所訓練，而他們背後是CIA、MI6"
瑞典人真是天真又單純啊!!
---------
當年西方的如意算盤據說是要讓武裝力量跨過深圳河，這樣就可以搞城市游擊戰（由東歐某國的教官們開火），讓武警/解放軍在香港有傷亡，重挫中共聲望。
但打這個如意算盤的人們，顯然忘記1967在香港操弄類似棋局的那隻手，就是2019棋盤對面的同一隻手。
故事的結果很簡單，香港很多藏在一國兩制大旗下的特權曝了光，北京以順應主流民意的大義加速了收回特權的速度，西方除了氣急敗壞地說北京是騙子外，也拿不出什麼實質的行動去改變些什麼。
20)
歐盟要把凍結的俄羅斯國有資產產生的利潤用於烏克蘭重建，但歐洲央行和包括巴黎和柏林在內的一些歐盟國家首都表示懷疑。 他們擔心此舉會擾亂金融市場並削弱歐元作為儲備貨幣的地位。
法國和德國這些歐洲大國還是比較深思熟慮，波羅的海國家、丹麥、瑞典、芬蘭和波蘭這些小國還是太天真、眼光太淺短，不會考慮後果。
瑞士已經因為它沒有維持中立，導致大量資金外移，美國凍結俄羅斯的資產，導致了世界許多國家進行去美元化，歐洲如果依然執迷不悟，經濟將會受到進一步的損害。
Switzerland has already caused a large amount of capital moving out of the country because it failed to maintain neutrality. The United States froze Russia's assets, which leads to de-dollarization in many countries around the world. If Europe remains stubborn, its economy will go further down.
而且如果這個可行，是不是以色列也應該比照辦理？
每天加薩上千的平民重傷、死亡，家園財產被摧毀，這些西方國家卻讓世界再度看到了雙標。
https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-leaders-approve-taxing-profits-of-russian-assets-ukraine-war/
21)
https://time.com/6329188/ukraine-volodymyr-zelensky-interview/
繼先前紐約時報報導了CIA在烏克蘭的活動之後，時代雜誌也以一篇長篇報導了烏克蘭的困境:
西方盟國的倦怠症、政府各層面嚴重貪腐(“People are stealing like there’s no tomorrow.”“Reznikov’s eggs,")、人員損失(平均兵員43歲)、就算西方盟國答應的武器到位也沒人員能使用、強迫徵兵與隨之而來的賄賂貪汙、國際注意力被轉移...
國際之間是很現實的，當發現你的利用價值降低後，就會被慢慢疏遠，最後被一腳踢開。這個時候才發現，自己的家園被破壞、國家的資產已經落入外國手裡，再多的同情也換不到那些逝去的生命。那些政府官員可能從中獲益、中飽私囊，但是平民百姓永遠是輸家。
22)歐洲轉向極右翼，例如法國，比利時，荷蘭，瑞士，瑞典與丹麥，反映的是歐洲經濟的困境、民生的危機。
在瑞典，堅決反對移民、反對多元文化主義的「瑞典民主黨」是議會中的第二大黨，支持著右翼聯合政府。
荷蘭大選，飽受爭議的極右派政治人物，懷爾德斯(Geert Wilders)贏得勝利。他以反伊斯蘭著稱，提倡要關掉荷蘭所有的清真寺。
法國的勒龐、意大利的五星運動都在向政治權力中心發起衝刺，最後義大利的梅洛妮(Giorgia Meloni)當選義大利總理。
英國的脫歐、歐陸的極右翼興起，關鍵之一就是難民和穆斯林問題。
但是這些難民、穆斯林是從哪裡來的呢？
英國有大約400萬的穆斯林人口，主要來自其前殖民地，今天的巴基斯坦、孟加拉國和印度，21世紀開始，還有來自戰亂地區的難民。
法國的穆斯林人口有840萬人，主要來自於他們的在非洲的前殖民地，而這些殖民地素來不平靜。
德國的穆斯林主要來自於20世紀60年代的勞務移民(以土耳其人為主)和自20世紀70年代以來至今的幾波政治、戰爭難民。
瑞典的穆斯林大部份來自戰亂地區如阿富汗、伊拉克、敘利亞、黎巴嫩、索馬利亞、非洲剛果、以及烏克蘭。
我們可以看到，21世紀以來，許多的難民來自於阿富汗、伊拉克、敘利亞、黎巴嫩，當然還有自從2022年以來的烏克蘭難民。
而這些戰爭是誰引起的？難民是誰製造的？
顯而易見，就是由美國(還有美國所帶頭領導的北約)。
在各地發動戰爭、製造大量難民的美國，因為遠離戰場，孤懸海外，且在長期的邊境管控之下，穆斯林人口只有345萬，50％的穆斯林是在本土出生和成長，而另外50％是外國出生的。
美國製造難民，歐洲替美國收拾善後，美國卻不斷從歐洲吸血。
俄烏戰爭(更正確地說，是北約與俄羅斯的戰爭)爆發後，烏克蘭難民大量逃往歐洲；歐洲必須不斷地挹注金錢與武器給烏克蘭；歐洲資產出逃(主要是到美國)；歐洲被迫不能向俄國購買能源，造成能源短缺，被迫以高價購買能源，身為能源生產大國的美國大發利市，從歐洲賺了大筆外匯；歐洲武器供應給烏克蘭之後，自身又必須向美國購買新的武器... 美國還一不作二不休，破壞了北溪管道。
在這樣的情況之下，美國2023年Q3經濟成長率高達4.9%，歐洲卻接近於0。
經濟成長受挫，能源價格高漲，通貨膨脹嚴重，還得金援軍援烏克蘭，這時候排外的極端主義自然會興起，穆斯林也就自然成為眾矢之的。
這個情況剛好給了中國極佳的契機 - 這把中東以及其他穆斯林國家推向了中國，讓中國更加鞏固全球南方領袖的地位。
我對歐洲的前途，並不看好。
Europe is turning towards the far right, as seen in countries such as France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Switzerland, Sweden, and Denmark. This shift reflects the economic challenges and social crises in Europe.
In Sweden, the "Sweden Democrats," a party strongly opposed to immigration and multiculturalism, is the second-largest party in parliament and supports a right-wing coalition government.
In the Netherlands, controversial far-right politician Geert Wilders gained victory in the elections. He is known for his anti-Islam stance and advocates for the closure of all mosques in the Netherlands.
In France, Marine Le Pen's National Rally and Italy's Five Star Movement are making a push towards the political center, with Giorgia Meloni winning the position of Prime Minister in Italy.
The rise of Brexit in the UK and far-right movements on the continent can be attributed, in part, to issues related to refugees and Muslims.
But where do these refugees and Muslims come from? In the UK, the Muslim population is approximately 4 million, primarily from former colonies such as Pakistan, Bangladesh, and India. Since the 21st century, there has also been an influx of refugees from conflict zones.
In France, the Muslim population is around 8.4 million, mainly from their former colonies in Africa, which have historically been unstable.
In Germany, Muslims primarily come from the labor migration of the 1960s (mainly Turks) and subsequent waves of political and war refugees since the 1970s.
In Sweden, most Muslims come from war-torn regions such as Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Somalia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Ukraine.
It is evident that since the 21st century, many refugees come from Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Ukraine since 2022.
And who is responsible for these wars and the creation of refugees? It is clear that the United States (and NATO led by the United States) plays a significant role.
The US, which initiates wars and creates a significant number of refugees, has a Muslim population of only 3.45 million. Fifty percent of Muslims in the US are born and raised domestically, while the other 50% are foreign-born.
The US creates refugees, and Europe is left to deal with the aftermath, while the US continues to benefit from Europe.
After the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war (more accurately, the war between NATO and Russia), a large number of Ukrainian refugees fled to Europe. Europe had to provide financial aid and weapons to Ukraine, assets fled Europe (mainly to the US), Europe was forced to stop buying energy from Russia, causing energy shortages and having to buy energy at high prices. As a major energy-producing country, the US profited from Europe by earning a large amount of foreign exchange. After supplying weapons to Ukraine, Europe had to purchase new weapons from the US. The US also disrupted the Nord Stream pipeline.
In this situation, the US had a high economic growth rate of 4.9% in Q3 2023, while Europe's growth rate was close to zero.
With economic stagnation, soaring energy prices, severe inflation, and the need to provide financial and military aid to Ukraine, it is natural for xenophobic extremism to rise, with Muslims becoming the target.
This situation has provided China with an excellent opportunity, pushing the Middle East and other Muslim countries towards China and further consolidating China's position as a global leader in the South.
I am not optimistic about the future of Europe given these circumstances.
23)
德國國防部長說：普京將在5到8年內會攻擊北約。
By scaring people in EU, more money runs to Military-industrial complex and politician's pockets. I wonder who would be fool enough to believe the German defense minister.
However, beware of that it might be a Self-fulfilling Prophecy.
透過恐嚇歐盟人民，更多的錢流進軍軍工複合體和政客的口袋。 我想知道誰會傻到相信德國國防部長的話。
然而，請小心，這可能是一個自我實現的預言。
Europe increases its hostility towards Russia, which forces Russia to take countermeasures. NATO launched the largest military exercise since the Cold War, raising tensions and causing Russia to move its strategic nuclear weapons westward.
The most stupid ones are Finland and Sweden, which were originally neutral countries. They made themselves become the front line.
歐洲升高其對俄國的敵意，俄國不得不採取反制措施。北約展開冷戰後最大規模的軍演，使得緊張情勢升高，反而讓俄國把戰略核武往西移動。
最笨的就是原本是中立國的芬蘭和瑞典，本來自己沒事的，現在把自己變成最前線了....
If Trump wins the election, more European capital will flow to the United States. Thanks to Europe's short-sightedness, it has solved a big problem for China.
露出馬腳 --Lindsey Graham 透露美國利用烏克蘭人生命來壓制俄國：
2023-05-28 Lindsey Graham ：“俄羅斯人正在死去......(援助烏克蘭)是我們花過最好的錢”
2024-03-18 Lindsey Graham 呼籲烏克蘭立法者迅速通過一項動員法案，讓更多公民有資格應徵入伍，並尖銳質疑豁免27歲以下男性參軍的規定。
2023-05-28 Lindsey Graham: "Russians are dying...Best money we've spent"
2024-03-18 Lindsey Graham called on Ukrainian lawmakers to quickly pass a mobilization bill that would make more citizens eligible to be drafted into the military, and he sharply questioned exempting men under 27 from the fight.
News links:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/lindsey-graham-russians-dying-best-085736703.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/03/18/lindsey-graham-visiting-kyiv-urges-ukraine-pass-mobilization-law/
莫斯科恐攻
USA:
I predict that Russia will attack Ukraine, I predict that the Nord Stream pipeline will be destroyed, I predict that there will be a massive terrorist attack in Moscow.
However, with such strong intelligence capabilities, I did not predict that China would facilitate the reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia. I did not predict that Hamas would launch the Al-Aqsa flood operation. I did not predict that the Houthis would dare to attack Western ships.
As expected, U.S. intelligence can only predict what is planned by its own.
美國:
我預測俄羅斯會攻擊烏克蘭，我預測北溪管道會被摧毀，我預測莫斯科將發生大規模恐怖攻擊。
但是這麼強的情報能力，中國促成伊朗與沙烏地和解我沒預測到，哈馬斯阿克薩洪水行動我沒預測到，胡賽武裝敢襲擊西方船隻我沒預測到。
美國的情報果然只能預測自己組織策劃的
https://www.guancha.cn/AntonNeeleman/2024_03_25_729515.shtml
In Serbia, the United Arab Emirates, Thailand, Malaysia, Vietnam, Singapore, China, Japan, South Korea, Turkey, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Armenia and other countries, Russian citizens can vote unimpeded, but in European countries, Russian citizens are “Vote under pressure.”
Ironic enough, these "democracies" are doing everything possible to interfere with Russia's democratic elections, but ignore Ukraine's confiscation of democratic elections.
When the Soviet Union collapsed, Ukraine was in much better conditions than Russia. Russia was tortured by the alcoholic Yeltsin for several years. Less than two decades later, however, Ukraine was manipulated by "democratic" politicians into one of the poorest countries in Europe - and Russia luckily had Putin.
The Western media unanimously criticized Russia for electing the "wrong" president, but the same media did not mention a word about Zelensky regrime confiscating the Ukrainian people's right to vote.
I wondered why those western countries don't want Putin - a previously moderate and pro-western person as the leader of Russia? Now I think there are two main reasons:
1. Putin is a leader with ability. They don't want to see the revival of Russia, especially USA.
2. Europe is freakened out by the US. The United States uses Europe's Russophobia) to control Europe. French president Emmanuel Macron used to say that "NATO is brain dead". Almost the whole Europe is like USA's vassal state now.
在塞爾維亞、阿拉伯聯合大公國、泰國、馬來西亞、越南、新加坡、中國、日本、韓國、土耳其、白俄羅斯、哈薩克、亞美尼亞等國，俄羅斯公民的投票活動暢通無阻，但在歐洲國家，俄羅斯公民們都在 “頂著壓力投票”
非常諷刺的是，這些「民主國家」千方百計地干擾俄羅斯的民主選舉，卻無視烏克蘭沒收民主選舉的行為。
蘇聯解體時，烏克蘭的情況比俄羅斯好得多。 俄羅斯多年來一直受到酗酒的葉利欽的折磨。 然而，不到二十年後，烏克蘭被「民主」政客操縱，成為歐洲最貧窮的國家之一——而俄羅斯幸運地擁有普丁。
西方媒體一致批評俄羅斯選了「錯誤」的總統，但對於澤連斯基政權剝奪烏克蘭人民投票權的事卻隻字不提。
我想知道為什麼那些西方國家不希望普丁這個溫和親西方的人擔任俄羅斯領導人？ 現在我覺得主要有兩個原因：
1.普丁是一位有能力的領導人。 他們不想看到俄羅斯，尤其是美國的復興。
2.歐洲被美國嚇壞了。 美國利用歐洲的恐俄症）來控制歐洲。 法國總統馬克宏曾說過「北約已經腦死」。 現在幾乎整個歐洲都像美國的附庸國一樣。
~~~~~~~~~~~
有人的心碎了.... 沒見過世面的女孩對渣男存在不現實的幻想是普遍現象。
Somebody got a broken heart. It is common for inexperienced girls to have unrealistic fantasies about scums
澤連斯基抱怨沒幫忙攔截飛彈「厚此薄彼」 美回懟：烏克蘭不是以色列
Ukraine, watching U.S. coalition protect Israel, feels alone
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2024/04/15/ukraine-israel-contrast-defense-iran/
轉自網友楊佳森：
烏克蘭人你們已經很幸福了...
看看被美國拋棄的庫德族，還有阿富汗人民吧！
講真的烏克蘭人你們已經很幸福了。
如果，也許，可能有那麼一天...你們真的加入庫德族&阿富汗人的群組...那時再自覺淒涼不遲。
庫德族的境遇是最淒慘的，打ISIS時被聯軍推到最前線幹最髒最累的活，死傷也最慘重，他們抱著一絲希望~希望戰後能得到列強的支持獨立建國。
結果，打完ISIS，被利用完了，美國轉身就走。
庫德族被美國帶頭的盟友賣了，他們直接面對了土耳其正規軍的碾壓...無人伸出援手...
這就是國際現實。
烏克蘭人你們對美國和歐盟還抱著什麼期待呢？
正義嗎？
友情嗎？
早點睡吧，夢裡可能會有（只是也許會在睡夢中被砲火驚醒就是了）。
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
眾議院議長 Mike Johnson 說實話：只是要烏克蘭人當炮灰
Some American politicians are "honest".
有些美國人挺誠實的，比如這位眾議院議長 「說穿了，我寧願給烏克蘭送子彈，也不願送子彈給美國男孩。 我兒子將於今年秋天開始進入海軍學院。..｣
“To put it bluntly, I would rather send bullets to Ukraine than American boys. My son is going to begin in the Naval Academy this fall. This is a live-fire exercise for me as it is so many American families,” Johnson told reporters. “This is not a game, this is not a joke.”
https://edition.cnn.com/2024/04/21/politics/ukraine-aid-mike-johnson-house-speaker-israel-taiwan/index.html
還有這位參議員：Mitt Romney also used to say: "We are losing no lives in Ukraine..."
~~~~~~~~
西方的言論自由
我在貼以下這篇貼文的時候，就被FB警告要限制我的帳號了：
Facebook 的言論自由是個笑話。當人們嘲笑中國人是在牆裡面的時候，殊不知整個西方世界是在一個更巨大的牆中。
When they joke that Chinese people are in the Great Wall, they don't know the whole western world is in a greater Great Wall. Thus, it's hard for people there to make correct decision. That's how I felt when I was in Europe.
上圖是我不能分享 Sputnik的文章(即使那只是一篇關於狗狗的文章)
下圖是 邱 世卿 遇到的詭異狀況。
The first picture: I couldn't share the article from Sputnik (even though it’s just an article about dogs)
The second picture: The strange situation my facebook friend encountered.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
美國參眾兩院日前通過援助台灣、以色列和烏克蘭的950億美元「援台以烏法案」，美國總統拜登旋即簽署生效。
這項總額法案，包括80億美元軍援台灣及維持印太地區和平穩定、260億美元援助以色列、610億美元援助烏克蘭；而這3個國家分別處在對抗中國、伊朗、俄羅斯的前沿地位上。
可是，我們190億美金的訂單可以先交貨嗎？錢都預付給美國了。未交訂單太多，台灣都告狀到美國眾議院軍事委員會了。
其實台灣在這個一籃子的援助法案當中，顯然只是陪襯地位，拜登政府通過此法案的最主要的目的，還是要避免在選前烏克蘭投降，重演"喀布爾時刻"，這樣他就不必選了，政治生涯到此結束。烏克蘭之前對美國的"恐嚇"發生了效果。(此前澤倫斯基曾說過：若得不到美國軍援烏克蘭將被迫後撤 ：
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2024/03/29/ignatius-zelensky-interview-ukraine-aid-russia/ )
分析給烏克蘭的這610億美元的援助，真的會笑出來。美國的軍工複合體和政客，真的很會算(賺)！！！
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
2024/6/3
這位老兄是嗑了多少藥？說俄國和中國破壞了"他的"和平峰會。
How much drug has this guy taken? Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has accused Russia and China of attempting to undermine HIS upcoming global peace summit in Switzerland.
Who in the right mind would want to attend a unilateral peace summit? A "peace summit" without invitating both warring parties is nothing but a waste of time.
It's miserable to have such an idiot as president.
----------
參加國/組織名單：
Belgium, Denmark, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Italy, Latvia, Liechenstein, The Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Spain, Cape Verde, Malawi, India, Japan, South Korea, Argentina, Canada, United States; and the heads of the Council of Europe, the European Council, and the European Commission.
Obviously, it's just a big "performance"
一看就知道根本只是個大拜拜.
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c722q4dn7e1o
中國不可能因西方壓力而選擇支援不利於俄羅斯的和平方案，那樣不僅會得罪俄羅斯，也未必能換來美國及其盟友的寬容。
2024/6/24 -->2024/5/29 的新聞標題一直改
The title was "Ukraine knows it is finished" on May 29, but it has become "Without Western armaments Ukraine may only have months left" now.
非常有趣！如果你key in "Ukraine knows it is finished"，你會看到 The Telegraph 的這篇報導："Without Western armaments Ukraine may only have months left"，以及DFRAC告訴你：這是誤導 (misleading)
PS. The title was "Ukraine knows it is finished" on May 29, but it has become "Without Western armaments Ukraine may only have months left" now.
先別說中國是"牆"國，西方世界的牆無所不在，讓你自己被"牆"了都不知道
~~~~~~~
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/bVucZDzeTJZ3D5BZ/
雖然台灣有戰爭的風險，不過至少比瑞典安全 -- 瑞典吃核彈的風險，比台灣高得多
新聞：瑞典首相願意在本國領土上部署核武以防戰爭
瑞典和芬蘭被人們戲稱為"北歐雙傻"，還真是名不虛傳！
--------------
5/29補充：
瑞典有"恐俄症"的傳統，自從大北方戰爭失利之後，一直覺得俄國要害他們，認為俄國不斷在威脅他們 - 但是瑞典必須問問自己：瑞典與北約有緊密的合作，難道對俄羅斯就不是威脅？
的確，身邊有個強大且在歷史上有野心的鄰居令人不安，最好的方式是一方面維持自己的實力，一方面與這個鄰居交好，兩邊都不得罪。維持中立是最好的選擇，而非加入北約與俄羅斯硬槓，結果不但失去了穩定廉價的能源、資源供應，自己還得增加國防預算、面對更嚴峻的安全挑戰。
歐洲遠比美國更加容易受到俄國的核攻擊，瑞典和芬蘭卻好像沒有思考過這個問題似的，非常不智。
他們以為加入NATO就可以跟其他國家一起圍毆俄羅斯，然而俄羅斯絕非孤軍奮戰，還有 Josep Borrell 口中的那些他所看不起的"jungle"國家。
這就是為什麼我兩年多前就說過，這場戰爭是一個 turning point of the world order.
----
As a country that has not been involved in war for two centuries, many people in Sweden are very kind, but many times they are too simple and naive.
When it comes to free speech, the Western world has failed me. If you dare to tell the truth, you will be attacked and suppressed on social media. They claimed that what you said was "fake news" and "propaganda," but it turned out to be true.
Sweden is like a vassal state of the United States. They didn't even dare to talk about the destruction of Nord Stream.
I have a lot of friends in Scandinavia and I really don’t want to see them being used by the United States to cause trouble for themselves.
In any case, the United States is turning us (Taiwan, the Republic of China) into the next Ukraine. If a conflict with the People's Republic of China is inevitable, I just hope that NATO doesn't provide us with any weapons, doesn't fuel to the conflict, and stays away from us.
~~~~~
丹麥政府現在要老百姓準備碘片、足夠三天用的飲水和食物。
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-06-15/danes-asked-to-keep-supplies-iodine-pills-to-prepare-for-crises
Self do, self have.自作自受!
果然給我說中!! 之前有朋友說我還能跑到瑞典，其實瑞典吃核彈的風險比台灣高得多。
丹麥政府現在要老百姓準備碘片、足夠三天用的飲水和食物。
My friends told me that at least I can go to Sweden if the war break out here, so I posted it on May 28:
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/bVucZDzeTJZ3D5BZ/
~~~~
這是我在 Quora 對此問題的回覆，歡迎協助補充：
https://chinaworldleader.quora.com/I-dont-believe-Taiwan-will-not-become-the-next-Ukraine-disasters-neither-did-Ukraine-Do-you-18
Obviously the US is working hard to turn Taiwan into the next Ukraine. Washington pressures TSMC to make advanced chips in US, even “suggests” us to adopt a ‘scorched earth policy’ and wipe out our own semiconductor foundries. Of course, very likely it won’t be just a “suggestion” if the military conflict occurs.
Former US National Security Advisor Robert O’Brien suggested that one million AK47-wielding Taiwanese “around every corner” and “in every apartment block” would be an effective deterrent to any Chinese invasion plans.
They want (force) us to buy the weapons THEY want us to buy with high price, such as FIM-92 Stinger, Volcano mine system. What the worse, the delivery is seriously delayed after we payed.
Aren't the following two reports look alike?
今天補充以下內容：
Taiwan won’t become the next Ukraine easily . Unlike what happened in Ukraine, so far really serious suppression to Chinese people in Taiwan or those who support reunion hasn’t happened here. China(PRC) doesn’t have the emergency to take military actions to Taiwan.
Russia didn’t take military action to Ukrain until the last moment when Ukrainian military was going to launch a large scale attack to Donbas.
Being a democratic country, the president has to listen to people.
~~~~~~~
"讓俄國移走核子彈"？好像沒西方國家的事情似的。
俄國為何出兵？就是北約一再背信東擴又不讓俄國加入的必然結果。
以英美為首的西方國家在烏克蘭製造顏色革命、對於人民投票的結果賴皮不認帳，放任對俄語族群的迫害。
這一迫害就是10年。
最後俄國不得不出手的原因，就是烏克蘭在頓巴斯地區大軍集結，準備消滅這些已經被烏克蘭長年迫害、離心離德的人。(當然，這就是要獨立必須付出的代價)
這也是為什麼衝突一開始，是被定義為特別行動，而且動作不大，
俄國要的是談判，而不是擴大衝突。
可惜英美兩國不希望事情就這樣結束，他們要的是代理人戰爭
然後，烏克蘭就變成了現在這副樣子，成了美國財團的囊中物
俄羅斯入侵烏克蘭的背景之一，是北約東擴。總統普京（Vladimir Putin）批評西方不守諾言，而這個諾言，可以追溯到當年的戈爾巴契夫（Mikhail Gorbachev）上。
美國國家檔案館的解密檔案中，證實了戈爾巴契夫曾獲得前總統老布希（George H. W. Bush）和柴契爾夫人（Margaret Thatcher）的承諾，北約不會東擴。在1990年，時任國務卿貝克（James Baker）表明北約不會「東擴一英寸」，肯定了華府無意將北約向東擴展。
U.S. Secretary of State James Baker’s famous “not one inch eastward” assurance about NATO expansion in his meeting with Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev on February 9, 1990, was part of a cascade of assurances about Soviet security given by Western leaders to Gorbachev and other Soviet officials throughout the process of German unification in 1990 and on into 1991, according to declassified U.S., Soviet, German, British and French documents posted today by the National Security Archive at George Washington University (http://nsarchive.gwu.edu).
https://nsarchive.gwu.edu/briefing-book/russia-programs/2017-12-12/nato-expansion-what-gorbachev-heard-western-leaders-early
~~~~~
前德國總理梅克爾於2022/12/7 接受了德國《時代週報》（Die Zeit）採訪時說，簽署明斯克協議（Minsk Agreement）是為了「給烏克蘭時間」，讓該國變得更強大。
也就是，西方各國聯合欺騙了俄羅斯。
https://x.com/TaranQ/status/1600614540483469313
Former German Chancellor Angela Merkel in an interview with the German newspaper Die Zeit:
"The 2014 Minsk Agreement was an attempt to give Ukraine time. They used that time to get stronger, which you can see today. Ukraine of 2014/15 is not Ukraine of today.
In other words, the Western countries jointly deceived Russia.
~~~~~~
北約秘書長說中國要為支持俄羅斯而付出代價，不過BBC底下留言很精彩！
看看這幾則新聞底下的留言，滿滿的吐槽挖苦，其實西方也有不少明眼人，不是我們想像的那麼腦袋簡單：
1. BBC: 北約秘書長稱中俄關係令人擔憂
https://youtu.be/m0Hqdq_msfE?si=JLCg71ooESMb5jt4
2. 北約秘書長斯托爾滕貝格警告中國不要幫助俄羅斯
https://www.youtube.com/live/cAg6LlJlEPY?si=_8ZAd9zzAuPX0mUJ
不少人就直接指出"NATO aggression is concerning" (北約的侵略令人擔憂)、"Legend says that ‘NATO is not a peaceful organization’."、"Since the fall of USSR, NATO has maintained offensive eastward strategy. That's the cause of this war in Ukraine."
(蘇聯解體後北約東擴是造成俄烏戰爭的主因)...
-----
北約秘書長(美國放在歐洲的傀儡)說：中國“對我們的價值觀構成挑戰” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg (the puppet USA put in Europe) said that China has become “a challenge to our values”
什麼時候我們亞洲要為你們的北約價值與利益買單了？
Now we Asia has to pay for interests and value of NATO ❗️❕❓❓
We don't care about your values at all❗️❗️❗️
------------
芬蘭總統：習近平打通電話就能結束烏俄戰爭
為什麼你要讓別人來收拾你北約製造的爛攤子？
為什麼不問問真正的麻煩製造者美國呢？
我可以告訴你停止戰爭最有效的方法：停止向烏克蘭提供任何金錢和武器。戰爭將在幾周到幾個月內停止。
Why do you want others to clean up the mess you NATO made?
Why don't you ask USA, the real trouble maker?
I can tell you the most efficient way to stop the war: Stop giving Ukraine any money and weapons. The war will stop within between a few weeks and a few months.
The Finnish government or whoever is behind the Finnish government still does not understand the idea of national sovereignty. Russia and China are 2 separate nations. One doesn’t control the other. It seems the Finnish have extended their western view, since they started this war and continue to speak for Ukraine
https://youtu.be/oVqOAXoFda0?si=PaOKYXoaPkSk2qk4
~~~~~~~~~
這幾年來的變化趨勢，大概與跟戰爭開始後我說過的差不多。
美國帶領歐洲對抗俄羅斯，結果促成了原本互相提防的中俄越來越緊密合作。
俄羅斯是資源大國，中國是製造大國，且兩國都有相當優秀的科技能力，尤其是在軍工方面，俄國還有中國想要學習的地方。以往俄國忌憚中國，處處防備，現在中俄合作層次大為提升。
相當諷刺地，俄羅斯本來是個令第三世界畏懼的強權國家，現在反而成了反抗西方強權的領導者 (who says that Russia has no friend?)；
各國的制裁對俄羅斯影響不一而足，但是很顯然地，歐洲被美國坑得很慘，讓俄國加速了進口替代，把自己的俄國市場拱手讓給其他國家，比如中國大陸、越南等等。
歐洲被美國大吸血：去資本化、去工業化、去軍事化。
歐洲金援烏克蘭，同時大量資產流向美國，導致歐洲投資不振，各國被美國掏空。
歐洲抵制俄國石油天然氣，加上天然氣管道被英美破壞，迫使歐洲轉向美國購買昂貴的天然氣等資源，燃料成本大幅上漲，歐洲的產業不得不外移，除了到亞洲外，其中很多也到美國設廠。
歐洲各國向烏克蘭輸送武器彈藥，美國甚至對歐洲國家施壓，要他們送更多的武器資源到烏克蘭，這些武器或遭到摧毀、或中途被轉賣，總之歐洲必須向美國購買更多的武器，別無選擇 (歐洲可能向俄國或者中國買嗎？)
歐洲受到意識形態影響，資金與產業出走，如果繼續讓美國擺弄，必定會更加萎縮。
歐洲的自由民主，因為這場戰爭而搖搖欲墜。
~~~~~~~~
沒見過世面的女孩對渣男存在不現實的幻想是普遍現象。
Somebody got a broken heart. It is common for inexperienced girls to have unrealistic fantasies about scums
如果台灣不一天到晚嚷著要獨立、不一天到晚想當美國的棋子，兩岸何必劍拔弩張？始作俑者還怪對方「飛彈對準台灣」，為何不想想真正原因？
美國已經在退出第一島鏈，小動作大到美國往關島撤，要你當美國馬前卒，你還跟七月半的鴨子一樣？
烏克蘭戰端未啟，美國的企圖就早已昭然若揭，沒智慧的人當然看不懂。自己傻還說別人被洗腦，這也是好笑了。
要當美國的馬前卒的，自己找個地方去打去，我們可不想跟著你們一起陪葬。
~~~~~~
看看美國如何｢堅定地｣支持他們的｢盟友(代理人)｣。
拜登在西點軍校的演講中說：『沒有任何一個美國士兵在烏克蘭戰場上。我決心要維持這種狀態。但我們堅定地與烏克蘭站在一起，我們將與他們站在一起....』
美國也剛剛在菲律賓展示了一次，美菲共同防禦條約(Mutual Defense Treaty between the Republic of the Philippines and the United States of America (MDT) )有多｢堅強｣
https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2024/05/25/remarks-by-president-biden-in-commencement-address-to-the-united-states-military-academy-at-west-point-west-point-ny/
~~~~~~~
我的瑞典朋友們擔心"中國會侵略台灣"，這是他們那邊媒體報導的角度。事實上，沒有人比美國更希望中國與台灣發生軍事衝突。
北歐國家極度親美，幾乎可以說是美國的附庸。他們的主流媒體幾乎是一致跟隨美國的論調，甚至捏造謊言欺騙他們的人民，這是令我感到不解的。
先不論在台灣地區的中華民國和在中國大陸地區的中華人民共和國這兩個政權都屬於中國，打起來只能算是內戰，而沒有所謂的"侵略"問題，是誰最希望台灣和中國大陸發生戰爭呢？
那當然是美國。他們想要把台灣變成烏克蘭2.0 是再明顯不過的事實。
離間關係親近的國家、群體，是美國常用的伎倆。
2014年，烏克蘭發生廣場革命(Euromaidan)、台灣發生太陽花學運(Sunflower Student Movement)、香港發生雨傘革命(Umbrella Revolution)，這些事件非常明顯地都有CIA介入、協助規劃、策動。
自從那個時候開始，台灣的媒體開始煽動對大陸的仇恨，比如只報導負面新聞、用各種偏頗荒謬的報導，甚至是捏造出來的謊言，讓台灣人對大陸充滿偏見與歧視。久而久之，大陸的人們對台灣的敵意也日漸升高。
在此之前，兩岸之間的關係，除了少數人外，尚且相當和諧。
1999年北約轟炸南斯拉夫，美國炸毀中國駐南斯拉夫大使館，台灣人在美國在台協會(AIT)前面抗議；2008年汶川大地震，許多台灣人慷慨解囊，捐款幫助受難者；來到台灣旅行的大陸人說｢台灣最美的風景是人｣。
在此同時，世界上也沒有比中國大陸對台灣讓利更多的地區。台灣的農產品要出口到中國大陸，不合標準，他們睜隻眼閉隻眼讓台灣的農產品通過；台灣的漁船在大陸沿岸海域捕魚，絕大部分情形下也不會限制。最近被扣船的是因為在伏季休漁期間跑去大肆撈捕，用的還是趕盡殺絕的不合規定的網具，本來就該被罰，而且應該嚴懲。
但是這樣和諧的關係，在媒體的操弄、欺騙、煽動下，越來越多台灣人被蒙蔽、洗腦，成了被美國用來挑釁中國大陸的工具。
為了怕只有台灣，對中國大陸無法造成足夠巨大的損失，美國試圖把日本和菲律賓也拉入衝突之中。
十年過去，烏克蘭變成戰場、人民流離失所、老百姓貧窮，整個國家被一個喜劇演員搞成了一場悲劇。歐洲變成美國附庸，無法獨立自主。
現在美國又要把NATO的髒手伸到亞太地區，台灣首當其衝。
我們應該拾回理性，不要當西方國家的代理人、砲灰。
Wherever NATO goes, where misery follows.
北約之所處，荊棘生焉!
My Swedish friends are worried that "China will invade Taiwan." This is the angle of their media reports.
In reality, no one wants a military conflict between China and Taiwan more than the United States.
The Nordic countries are extremely pro-USA and can almost be said to be vassals of the United States. Their mainstream media almost unanimously follow the American argument to an extent that is almost blindly obedient. This is puzzling to me.
The two regimes of the Republic of China in Taiwan and the People's Republic of China in mainland both belong to China. How can one country invades itself? The military conflict between the two regimes can only be regarded as a civil war.
Who can gain the greatest benefit from the conflict between Taiwan and mainland China?
Obvious, it’s the United States. Therefore, they want to turn Taiwan into Ukraine 2.0.
It is a common trick used by the United States to drive a wedge between countries or groups that were close to each other.
Obvious that the CIA was involved in the Euromaidan Revolution occurred in Ukraine, the Sunflower Student Movement occurred in Taiwan, and the Umbrella Revolution occurred in Hong Kong in 2014. They assisted in planning, and instigated these events.
Since that time, Taiwan's media has begun to incite hatred against the mainland, such as reporting huge amount of negative news about mainland of China, using all kinds of biased and absurd reports, and even fabricated lies, making Taiwanese people full of prejudice and discrimination against the mainland. Over time, people on the mainland have become increasingly hostile to Taiwan too.
Prior to this, the relationship between the two sides of the Strait was quite harmonious except for a few people.
In 1999, NATO bombed Yugoslavia, and the United States blew up the Chinese Embassy there, and Taiwanese people protested in front of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT); in the 2008, after Wenchuan earthquake, many Taiwanese generously donated money to help the victims. At the meantime, those who traveled to Taiwan from Mainlanders said that "The most beautiful scenery in Taiwan is its people."
No region in the world has made more benefits to Taiwan than mainland China. They accept Taiwan's substandard agricultural products exported to mainland China. They don’t require so strictly as other countries. In most cases, Taiwan's fishing boats fish in the coastal waters of the mainland without restrictions. The boat was detained recently was because they went fishing on a large scale during the fishing moratorium and used illegal nets to catch almost all the fish.
However, such a harmonious relationship has been manipulated, deceived and incited by the media. More and more Taiwanese people have been deceived and brainwashed, and have become a tool used by the United States to provoke mainland China.
Fearing that Taiwan alone would not be able to cause huge enough losses to mainland China, the United States tried to draw Japan and the Philippines into the conflict.
Ten years after the color revolution, Ukraine has become a battlefield, people have been displaced, and the entire country has been turned into a tragedy by a comedian. Europe is almost nothing but a vassal of the United States and cannot be independent.
Now the United States is extending NATO's dirty hands to the Asia-Pacific region, and Taiwan is the first to bear the brunt.
We should regain our rationality and not become a proxy/cannon fodder and fall into the trap of the United States.
Wherever NATO goes, where misery follows….
~~~~~~
美國說是烏克蘭炸北溪
狗咬狗，一嘴毛。😸😸😂😹😸🤣
美國媒體說是烏克蘭炸毀北溪管線，烏克蘭媒體說：
「烏克蘭總統顧問Mykhailo Podolyak於8月15日否認基輔參與北溪爆炸,此前最近的媒體報導稱烏克蘭公民為犯罪嫌疑人。
"“這種行為只能用大量的技術和財政資源來執行......在轟炸時誰擁有這一切? 只有俄羅斯,”」
你確定只有俄羅斯？？？🤣😸😹😂🤣
現在兩個兇手互相把責任推給對方，誰也不想擔責任。
只是雖說現在是狗咬狗，一嘴毛，但是烏克蘭哪敢咬出真兇其實是USA ？他們還需要USD 呢！
https://youtu.be/zr6VOXeSWjs?si=Hzb1Zv-1JXQ057S7
德國右翼黨派選擇黨聯席主席愛麗絲•魏德爾表示，烏克蘭應該在“北溪”遭到破壞後賠償德國的經濟損失。
有關指控“毫無根據” 波蘭否認幫助烏克蘭破壞“北溪”管道
https://finance.sina.com.cn/jjxw/2024-08-19/doc-inckcmqs1612128.shtml
https://www.tkww.hk/a/202408/19/AP66c2efbee4b05198069bd8f4.html
被指“参与破坏北溪管道”，波兰总理回应
https://tt.sina.cn/article_2309405068729041158152.html
德国联邦情报局前局长奥古斯特·汉宁16日对德国《世界报》称，波兰很可能参与了“北溪”管道爆炸事件。他推测，波兰时任总统杜达和乌克兰总统泽连斯基可能就破坏管道“达成協議
据德国《世界报》报道，德国情报局前局长奥古斯特·汉宁认为，乌克兰破坏“北溪”管道得到了波兰支持，德国应该考虑向这两国索赔。
Germany’s former intelligence chief has accused Ukraine and Poland of planning and executing the sabotage attack on Nord Stream gas pipelines in 2022, while Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has strongly rejected such claims and demanded an apology.
從地緣政治來說，中國的崛起對美國的威脅不是最大的，美國最怕的是歐洲團結一體化，特別是俄羅斯和法德團結起來，那就沒美國什麼事了，這才是美國最大的噩夢。所以這麼多年，美國拼了命的要去打壓肢解俄羅斯。
From a geopolitical point of view, the rise of China is not the greatest threat to the United States. What the United States is most afraid of is the unity and integration of Europe, especially the unity of Russia, France and Germany. It's USA's nightmare. That's why the United States has so many soldiers in Germany and tries its best to suppress and dismember Russia.
烏克蘭抓伕
https://www.facebook.com/share/p/oUjchjwWYvjufeci/
紐約時報報導，烏克蘭搖滾天團「Okean Elzy」在基輔舉辦演唱會，軍警在場外埋伏。
歌迷聽完演唱會後，長相「年輕男子」者會被攔下徹查身分，符合徵兵資格將直接抓壯丁充軍。
首日演唱會後，網路上湧現眾多門票低價拋售。
---
赫梅利尼茨基地區遭踢爆，開打後有 90% 檢察官突然變成身障，可以逃避徵兵還能領身障補助。
對此，烏總檢察長在國安委員會上引咎辭職。
SBU(烏國安局)本周逮捕了 64 名醫療社福官員，罪名為偽造身障文件使民眾逃避徵兵。
截至 10/23，烏已有超過四千份身障手冊遭清查後撤銷。
新聞連結: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraines-prosecutor-andriy-kostin-scandal-russia-troops/
https://archive.fo/XoSyT#selection-827.0-1153.46 -->這裡可以看到內容
烏克蘭的報導：https://interfax.com.ua/news/general/1021958-amp.html
在加拿大的網友表示：
人在加拿大，這裡現在一堆烏克蘭人，他們以難民身分跑來這邊，結果他們開著豪車去我吃不起的餐廳去坐在我買不起的座位上看表演。 我想台灣若不幸發生戰爭，某些高官權貴的小孩也會像這些人一樣吧，想到當中有不少人是鼓吹戰爭把我們韭菜送去填線送死的就格外感到悲哀。 可憐的台灣，離上帝太遠，離____太近
這時，烏克蘭女生過去三年拿到歐美自由行同行證玩的爽爽的。等打完再連同sugar daddy 回國買便宜房產。人生贏家！
我有訂New York Times, 這邊幫沒訂閱而看不到內容的朋友們轉貼一下：
Tickets to [Okean Elzy] concerts are highly prized. But they suddenly became available after the first of three sold-out concerts in Kyiv, Ukraine’s capital, on Friday night. The reason? Draft officers and the police had waited outside the concert hall, looking for men trying to dodge military service in the country’s war with Russia. They asked men to see their draft papers and detained those who had not registered.
“People, help me please!” shouted a young man being dragged away from the concert hall by officers, a video shared on social media showed.
In another video shown on Ukrainian media, an officer wearing the dark blue uniform of the national police, pointed at another young man leaving the show. “Wait, are we taking this one?” he asked.
The videos spread quickly, prompting a backlash among some Ukrainians who felt that corralling men at entertainment events was a step too far in the effort to add desperately needed recruits to the war effort.
[...]
Tickets for future Okean Elzy concerts immediately started to show up for resale online. One site, OLX, had dozens of postings. A music critic, Vadim Lysytsya, joked that the authorities could easily find draft dodgers by checking who was selling their tickets.
Similar document checks took place nationwide at concerts and performances that Friday night, a sign of a new phase in Ukraine’s attempts to enforce its draft laws.
[...]
Although Ukrainian officials say that they have been successful in meeting mobilization targets, troops on the front lines have complained that reinforcements are often old, poorly trained or suffering from health problems.
“We are running out,” said one soldier, Lt. Maksym, who is serving at the front and asked to be identified only by his first name for security reasons. His brigade, the 28th, has lost many soldiers and its commander.
About six million men eligible to serve — about 16 percent of Ukraine’s population — have not renewed their contact and personal details with draft offices, as required by law, according to the lawmaker Oleksandr Fedienko, a member of the parliamentary Committee on National Security and Defense, in comments reported by Ukrainian news outlets.
Despite the possibility of being pulled aside by draft officers, young men have continued to visit cafes and restaurants and to attend concerts. Many such events also raise money for the army, and some of the most reliable donors are the young men who are eligible to serve.
The decision to raid concerts has highlighted a division long brewing in Ukrainian society between the young men who have gone to fight and those who have not. Some say those avoiding the draft should not be visiting concerts.
“Either you are a citizen and fulfill the requirements of the times, or you are a dodger,” said Capt. Oleh Voitsekhovsky, who is currently fighting in eastern Ukraine.
Others say they consider rounding men up during entertainment events a violation of their rights.
Iryna, 37, said that her husband had renewed all the data needed at the draft office but grew worried about attending the concert after seeing videos of men grabbed off the street.
“This is wrong,” she said. “People are scared to walk the streets. It has to be done differently.”
[...]
In a comment to the state news agency Ukrinform, the press service of the Kyiv draft office said that all the officers at the Okean Elzy concert had followed the law. They added that such document checks were done regularly.
No draft officers could be seen at the Okean Elzy concert on Sunday, but attendees appeared relatively subdued. Women appeared to greatly outnumber men. Most of the men at the show seemed to be either students or soldiers on leave.
Mykhailo, a soldier who asked to be identified only by his first name because he was not authorized to speak publicly, said that he thought it was fine if draft officers showed up at concerts.
“Why should one guy hide while another is fighting?” he said.
Another young man, Oleksiy, 35, was attending the concert with his wife after buying tickets in August. “We want to hear it, so we came,” he said.
“The draft office is doing its job, and when we were buying tickets, I knew it might be risky,” he acknowledged.
Oleksiy added that, although he had renewed his data with the draft office, he was still worried.
“I hope I’ll come back home tonight,” he said.
2024/11/2
台籍志願兵命喪烏克蘭 他揭殘酷真相 https://ynews.page.link/1sc6t
1. 關鍵字：長老教會、基輔、志願兵、沈伯洋 - 這兩個陣亡的案例相似度極高。
2. 台灣也有為俄羅斯犧牲的軍人，但是我們的媒體為什麼不敢報？
收錢賣命個人商業行為我們幹嘛報導（讚揚惋惜任何感覺都多餘）任何一方？他們若全身而退賺到的傭金繳稅給台灣嗎？🤭
據現時公佈的訊息, 是在烏克蘭的台灣分隊, 經教會與牧師與台灣這邊聯絡. 應該要問的問題是:
其一, 為什麼是沈伯洋走出來公佈消息,
其二, 誰是台灣這邊接頭單位,
其三, 台灣分隊, 究竟是否有組織派到當地參戰,
其四, 黑熊學院在其中扮演什麼角色.
.
現在看來, 之前台獨頑固分子制裁名單為什麼會有沈伯洋的名字, 看來不像他自己所說的那樣無辜.
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這樣就可以解釋的通了.....不然你某島人要去烏克蘭加入兵團是進不去的，台灣和烏克蘭的關係甚至不如和俄羅斯的關係。
我相信他是為信念而去的，而非單單是為了錢。
而這信念是誰給的呢？長老教會扮演了關鍵角色。
就像那些自殺炸彈客一樣，他們也都相信是為了真主而犧牲自己。
政治與宗教都是洗腦的利器。
黑熊X長老教會，自己不去上戰場，卻讓自己的信徒去當炮灰...
不知道曾聖光的撫恤金拿到了沒？
黃春生為什麼不自己去烏克蘭戰場當戰地牧師？
俄羅斯至少還有中華民國辦事處呢🤷
看看要不要去找俄羅斯幫忙把烏克蘭國際軍團的貨物200收回來...
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普京最亲西方，为什么还要置他于死地？美国从未曾想要放过俄罗斯！
https://youtu.be/Ij64mgY-H8w?si=S_9hRyjo5B-7jF-K
俄羅斯的經驗，告訴中國人只有自己強大，才有和平可言，和平不可能乞求而得 - 一點都沒錯。
深層政府軍工複合體一向都是遵從「天下大亂，情勢大好」的座右銘
在許多發言中，可以看出 Jeffrey Sachs 是一位非常善良、提倡人道主義、嚮往大同世界的人。米爾斯海默是從美國利益基礎出發，主張聯俄制中，所以他認為美國推動俄烏戰爭，把俄國推向中國是非常錯誤的。他們兩位其他方面有很多彼此認同之處，對於中國的看法卻不太相同。
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Lindsey Graham
If I don't steal it, someone else will. -Lindsey Graham
https://youtu.be/TzLKdn0hqFY?si=gBRswYRTy2gKdgWP
Lindsey Graham 在Zelensky 面前對他說：烏克蘭人犧牲，沒有一個美國人死亡就削弱了俄羅斯
https://x.com/MyLordBebo/status/1890693874265231728
What Lindsey Graham said is: "it's great that it's only Ukrainians dying in a war over our geopolitical intrests."
Really miserable to be a proxy.
BTW, Lindsey Graham is the guy who forced us to buy Boeing planes.
翻譯成白話：“在這場為了地緣政治利益而爆發的戰爭中死亡的沒有美國人，只有烏克蘭人，這真是太好了。” 當代理人真的很慘。
順道一提Lindsey Graham 就是強迫我們購買波音飛機的人。
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俄烏戰爭的爆發的遠因與近因
ChatGPT:
俄烏戰爭的爆發有多重遠因與近因，涵蓋歷史、政治、軍事、經濟與國際關係等因素。
一、遠因（長期因素）
歷史與民族認同衝突
俄羅斯一直視烏克蘭為其「歷史與文化的一部分」，而烏克蘭則強調自身獨立的民族認同，雙方在歷史敘事上存在巨大分歧。
俄羅斯總統普丁認為烏克蘭與俄羅斯屬於「同一民族」，並否認烏克蘭的主權獨立性。
蘇聯解體與烏克蘭獨立（1991）
1991年蘇聯解體後，烏克蘭獲得獨立，俄羅斯對此始終心存不滿，尤其是烏克蘭繼承了大量蘇聯軍工資產與黑海艦隊基地（克里米亞）。
北約東擴與俄羅斯安全憂慮
北約（NATO）自1999年起多次東擴，包括波蘭、波羅的海三國等前蘇聯國家加入，使俄羅斯認為自身安全空間被壓縮。
俄羅斯視烏克蘭加入北約為「紅線」，擔心北約軍事力量進入其邊界。
烏克蘭政治傾向西方
2004年「橙色革命」推翻親俄派總統，強化烏克蘭的親歐立場。
2014年「親歐盟示威（廣場革命）」推翻親俄總統亞努科維奇，導致俄羅斯強烈反彈，進一步激化俄烏矛盾。
克里米亞危機與頓巴斯戰爭（2014）
2014年，俄羅斯吞併克里米亞，並支持烏克蘭東部頓巴斯地區的親俄分離勢力，造成長期武裝衝突（頓巴斯戰爭）。
俄羅斯利用當地親俄民眾，建立「頓內次克人民共和國」與「盧甘斯克人民共和國」，挑戰烏克蘭主權。
二、近因（直接導火索）
烏克蘭持續靠攏西方
2019年澤連斯基當選總統後，加強與歐美的合作，尋求加入北約與歐盟，觸動俄羅斯敏感神經。
北約與美國對烏克蘭的軍事支持增加
俄羅斯認為美國與北約在烏克蘭的軍事部署（如提供武器、軍事顧問等）已對其國家安全構成威脅。
2021年底俄羅斯向烏克蘭邊境增兵
俄羅斯從2021年開始向烏克蘭邊境調動大量軍隊，進行「軍事演習」，但實際上是為戰爭做準備。
2022年俄羅斯承認頓巴斯分離地區
2022年2月21日，普丁正式承認烏東「頓內次克人民共和國」與「盧甘斯克人民共和國」為獨立國家，並派遣「維和部隊」，實際上是進軍烏東地區。
2022年2月24日俄羅斯全面入侵
俄羅斯宣布「特別軍事行動」，全面入侵烏克蘭，標誌著俄烏戰爭正式爆發。
總結
遠因：歷史、民族認同、蘇聯解體、北約東擴、烏克蘭親西方、克里米亞危機等。
近因：烏克蘭尋求加入北約、俄羅斯軍事威脅升級、承認烏東分離勢力、全面入侵烏克蘭。
這場戰爭不僅是俄烏之間的衝突，更涉及全球地緣政治，影響歐美與俄羅斯關係，也改變了國際安全格局。
Deepseek:
遠因（長期因素）
歷史與地緣政治的糾葛：
烏克蘭與俄羅斯在歷史上有深厚的聯繫，基輔羅斯被視為東斯拉夫文明的起源，俄羅斯長期將烏克蘭視為其勢力範圍的一部分。
蘇聯解體後，烏克蘭獨立，但俄羅斯始終認為烏克蘭是其「勢力範圍」內的重要緩衝區，難以接受烏克蘭倒向西方。
北約東擴與俄羅斯的安全焦慮：
自冷戰結束後，北約多次東擴，接納了許多前蘇聯加盟共和國和東歐國家，這讓俄羅斯感到戰略空間被壓縮。
俄羅斯將烏克蘭視為其與西方之間的「最後屏障」，若烏克蘭加入北約，俄羅斯的戰略安全將受到直接威脅。
烏克蘭內部的分裂與親俄勢力的削弱：
烏克蘭東部地區（如頓涅茨克、盧甘斯克）與俄羅斯有較強的歷史、文化和經濟聯繫，而西部地區則更傾向於融入歐洲。
2014年烏克蘭親俄總統亞努科維奇被推翻後，烏克蘭加速向西方靠攏，這引發了俄羅斯的強烈不滿，並導致克里米亞被吞併和頓巴斯地區的衝突。
近因（短期因素）
烏克蘭加入北約的意願：
烏克蘭近年來積極尋求加入北約和歐盟，這被俄羅斯視為對其國家安全的直接威脅。
俄羅斯要求北約提供具有法律約束力的保證，承諾不接納烏克蘭，但未獲得西方同意。
頓巴斯地區衝突的升級：
自2014年以來，烏克蘭東部的頓巴斯地區一直處於親俄分離勢力與烏克蘭政府軍的衝突狀態。
2021年底至2022年初，頓巴斯地區的衝突加劇，俄羅斯以此為由指責烏克蘭政府迫害俄語族群，並以此作為出兵的理由之一。
俄羅斯的戰略目標與普京的個人意志：
俄羅斯總統普京希望通過軍事行動重塑俄羅斯在東歐的影響力，並阻止烏克蘭完全倒向西方。
普京將烏克蘭視為俄羅斯歷史、文化和地緣政治的一部分，並在戰爭爆發前發表長篇演講，否認烏克蘭作為獨立國家的合法性。
國際局勢與西方反應：
美國和北約對烏克蘭的支持（包括軍事援助和訓練）讓俄羅斯感到威脅。
俄羅斯可能認為西方在烏克蘭問題上的態度軟弱，選擇此時發動戰爭以達到其戰略目標。
總結
俄烏戰爭的遠因在於歷史、地緣政治和俄羅斯對烏克蘭的傳統影響力，而近因則與烏克蘭的親西方政策、頓巴斯衝突升級以及俄羅斯的戰略計算密切相關。這場戰爭不僅是俄烏之間的衝突，更是俄羅斯與西方在地緣政治上的博弈。
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頓巴斯地區的親俄傾向與烏克蘭政府的政策有密切關係。烏克蘭政府對東部地區的不平等待遇與迫害，特別是在語言、經濟、政治等方面的壓制，是造成當地民眾反抗並尋求俄羅斯支持的主要原因之一。以下是更完整的背景：
1. 語言與文化打壓
- 2014年廣場革命後，烏克蘭政府取消《語言法》（該法允許俄語在俄語人口占多數的地區作為官方語言）。這讓以俄語為母語的頓巴斯居民感到不滿，認為政府在強迫烏克蘭化。
- 2017年與2019年，烏克蘭進一步限制俄語使用，包括禁止俄語在學校教學、媒體與政府機構中使用。這導致頓巴斯地區的俄語居民感到被邊緣化。
2. 經濟剝削與資源掠奪
- 蘇聯時期，頓巴斯是烏克蘭的工業重鎮，擁有豐富的煤礦與重工業，但烏克蘭政府長期忽視該地區的經濟發展。
- 1991年烏克蘭獨立後，政府將資源轉向西部地區，導致頓巴斯地區產業衰落，失業率上升，民眾對基輔政府的不滿增加。
- 2014年後，烏克蘭政府封鎖頓巴斯，切斷經濟往來，使當地更加依賴俄羅斯。
3. 政治歧視與暴力鎮壓
- 2014年亞努科維奇政府被推翻，頓巴斯地區的大量選民支持他，但卻沒有發言權，這讓當地人民感到「選擇被剝奪」。
- 烏克蘭政府視頓巴斯的親俄勢力為「分裂分子」，並以軍事鎮壓，導致大規模平民傷亡。這種做法進一步激化對立，使頓巴斯民眾更加反感基輔政府。
4. 頓巴斯的人民並非「天然親俄」，而是被逼的
頓巴斯居民的親俄情緒，並非單純因為歷史或民族情感，而是來自烏克蘭政府的不公正對待。
- 如果烏克蘭政府能夠尊重頓巴斯人民的語言、文化和經濟利益，這些地區未必會選擇反抗和尋求俄羅斯的支持。
- 但基輔政府選擇打壓、軍事鎮壓，導致頓巴斯人民將俄羅斯視為唯一的保護者，最終促成了2014年武裝衝突的爆發。
結論
頓巴斯的衝突並非單純的「俄羅斯干預」，而是烏克蘭政府長期壓迫當地人民所導致的後果。
如果基輔政府當初能夠公平對待頓巴斯，給予更多自治權、保障語言與文化權利，這場戰爭或許可以避免。
台灣會不會成為烏克蘭2.0？
台灣與烏克蘭相似之處：
1. 族群矛盾與身份認同問題
- 烏克蘭：東部的俄語人口與西部的烏克蘭語人口之間存在深刻矛盾。烏克蘭政府推動去俄化政策，使頓巴斯居民感到被排擠，最終導致武裝衝突。
- 台灣：本省人（閩南、客家）與外省人之間的矛盾也由來已久，尤其是在語言、歷史認同等問題上。例如，某些政治勢力試圖削弱外省族群的影響力，並透過教育與文化政策強化本土意識。
2. 語言政策
- 烏克蘭：烏政府限制俄語使用，導致俄語人口強烈反彈，認為自身權益受損。
- 台灣：政府大力推動「母語教育」，但將閩南語視為「台灣母語」，對於外省族群的語言（如國語、客家話）相對冷落，引發部分族群不滿。
3. 政治迫害與司法不公
- 烏克蘭：親俄派政治人物受到打壓，亞努科維奇被推翻後流亡俄羅斯，許多親俄政黨被取締。
- 台灣：近年來，司法機構的選擇性辦案（如針對特定政黨或媒體的打壓）、透過法律手段清除異己的做法，讓人聯想到烏克蘭政治鬥爭的手法。
4. 媒體審查與言論控制
- 烏克蘭：政府封鎖俄羅斯媒體，禁止親俄新聞頻道，甚至打壓批評政府的記者。
- 台灣：關閉中天新聞台、打壓親中媒體、限制某些立場的言論自由，被認為是政府「去中國化」政策的一部分。
5. 外國勢力介入
- 烏克蘭：美國與歐盟支持廣場革命，鼓勵親西方政府上台，並提供軍事與經濟援助，加劇與俄羅斯的對立。
- 台灣：美國對台灣內政有巨大影響力，例如軍售、政治施壓、外交干預，並支持特定政黨，導致台海局勢更加緊張。
台灣是否會成為「烏克蘭2.0」？
可能性存在，但有變數
- 如果台灣政府持續壓迫特定族群（如外省人）並推動極端的去中國化政策，可能會激化內部分裂，加劇社會對立。
- 如果美國持續利用台灣作為「反中前線」，台灣可能進一步捲入中美衝突，被推向戰爭邊緣。
- 如果兩岸發生軍事衝突，那麼台灣確實有可能重蹈烏克蘭的覆轍，成為代理戰場。
然而，台灣與烏克蘭的環境仍有重要區別，例如地理條件、經濟發展、與中國大陸的民族聯繫等，使得台灣未必會完全複製烏克蘭的劇本。
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歐洲所犯下的最大錯誤就是聽信美國，與俄羅斯交惡
歐洲國家，尤其是波羅的海國家以及芬蘭和瑞典，最大的戰略錯誤就是與鄰國俄羅斯交惡。本來，這些國家可以享受來自俄羅斯的廉價且穩定的能源供應，從而促進經濟發展，提升自身的國際競爭力。然而，他們選擇相信美國的操控和煽動，結果導致歐洲整體經濟衰退，國際地位下降，甚至國內社會安全惡化，恐怖攻擊頻發，這些趨勢在近年的局勢中已經展現得非常明顯。
歐洲各國與俄羅斯對抗的結果之一，就是能源價格飆升，使得歐洲工業競爭力下降，企業成本增加，生產轉移到其他地區，導致失業率上升，社會不滿加劇。此外，軍事對抗帶來的風險上升，不僅使國防開支大增，還導致戰略自主性進一步受限，完全依賴美國的保護，而美國的承諾卻未必可靠。
這種「親美反俄」的戰略失誤，與台灣的情況有相似之處。台灣地緣上與中國大陸比鄰而居，經貿聯繫緊密，但卻選擇過度依賴美國的支持，與大陸對抗，結果導致經濟風險上升，兩岸關係惡化，台海局勢日益緊張。而美國對台灣的支持是否真的能在關鍵時刻兌現，也是一個巨大變數。
從歷史與現實來看，鄰國之間的關係應當以務實合作為主，而不應受外部勢力操控，淪為大國博弈的棋子。歐洲與俄羅斯的衝突，導致自身損失巨大，而台灣若繼續走類似的道路，也可能面臨相同的困境。
The biggest strategic mistake of European countries, especially the Baltic states, Finland, and Sweden, is their deterioration of relations with their neighbor Russia. These countries could have benefited from affordable and stable energy supplies from Russia, promoting economic development and enhancing their international competitiveness. However, they chose to believe in the manipulation and provocation of the United States, resulting in a broader European economic recession, a decline in international standing, and even worsening domestic social security, with frequent terrorist attacks. These trends have become very evident in recent years.
One of the consequences of Europe's confrontation with Russia is the soaring energy prices, which have led to a decline in industrial competitiveness, increased business costs, and the relocation of production to other regions, causing rising unemployment and heightened social dissatisfaction. Furthermore, the military confrontation has brought about increased risks, not only driving up defense expenditures but also limiting strategic autonomy, as the countries become entirely reliant on U.S. protection, with the reliability of America's commitments uncertain.
This "pro-U.S., anti-Russia" strategic mistake bears similarities to the situation in Taiwan. Taiwan is geographically close to Mainland China, with close economic and trade ties, but has chosen to overly rely on U.S. support to confront China, leading to increased economic risks, deteriorating cross-strait relations, and escalating tensions in the Taiwan Strait. Whether U.S. support for Taiwan will truly materialize at a critical moment remains a significant uncertainty.
From both historical and practical perspectives, relations between neighboring countries should focus on pragmatic cooperation rather than manipulation by external powers, turning them into pawns in the great power game. Europe's conflict with Russia has resulted in significant losses, and if Taiwan continues down a similar path, it may face the same dilemma.
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Putin is the most pro-west Russian leader, but he and his country were deceived over and over. Talking about murderous, who can compete with USA? Talking about paranoid, isn't Europe the same? Has the world been lack of nationalists?
普京與西方：信任與欺騙的歷史
普京確實是後蘇聯時期最接近西方的俄羅斯領導人之一。在他剛上台時，曾積極尋求與歐洲及美國建立合作關係，包括與北約（NATO）進行對話、加入世貿組織（WTO），甚至在911事件後支持美國的反恐戰爭。然而，西方對俄羅斯的承諾卻往往未能兌現。例如：
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北約東擴問題 – 蘇聯解體後，美國曾向戈爾巴喬夫承諾北約「不會向東擴展一寸」，但自1999年起，北約逐步接納了東歐國家，直接將影響範圍推至俄羅斯邊境。這讓俄羅斯感到被背叛，視之為對自身安全的威脅。
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科索沃與利比亞的先例 – 俄羅斯曾對西方的「人道主義干預」保持相對克制，特別是在1999年北約轟炸南斯拉夫和2011年推翻利比亞領導人卡扎菲的事件中。但俄方發現，這些所謂的「干預」最終導致的是政權更迭和西方勢力的擴張。這讓俄羅斯決心不再對類似情況妥協，這可從2014年克里米亞事件和2022年烏克蘭戰爭的決策中看出端倪。
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明斯克協議與烏克蘭問題 – 2014年烏克蘭危機後，歐洲國家主導的明斯克協議原本應確保烏克蘭東部的和平，但烏克蘭政府並未真正落實自治條款，而西方也未對此施壓。這加深了俄羅斯對西方的不信任，最終導致2022年衝突全面爆發。
論嗜殺：美國與以色列的軍事行動
如果從軍事行動的頻率和規模來看，美國無疑是當代國際政治中最積極參與戰爭的國家之一。從二戰後到現在，美國發動或參與的軍事行動數量驚人，例如：
- 1950-1953年：韓戰
- 1965-1975年：越戰
- 1991年：海灣戰爭
- 2001年至今：阿富汗戰爭（美國歷史上最長的戰爭）
- 2003-2011年：伊拉克戰爭
- 2011年：利比亞干預
- 2014年至今：敘利亞戰爭（通過支持反對派介入）
美國的軍事政策往往以「民主」、「人權」為名，但最終導致的卻是國家解體、內戰長期化，以及數百萬無辜平民的傷亡。例如伊拉克戰爭以「大規模殺傷性武器」為由發動，結果不僅沒有找到證據，還讓伊拉克陷入長期混亂。
至於以色列，自1948年建國以來，它幾乎一直處於戰爭或軍事衝突狀態。2023年以來，以色列對加薩的轟炸已經造成超過3萬名巴勒斯坦人死亡，其中大量是婦女和兒童。這種無差別的軍事行動被許多國家譴責為「種族滅絕」，但由於美國的支持，國際社會對其制裁幾乎無效。
論偏執：歐洲的選擇性道德
歐洲國家在歷史上一直是民族主義、殖民主義的策源地，但如今卻試圖以「普世價值」自居，對其他國家說教。例如：
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對俄羅斯的敵視 – 俄羅斯在歷史上多次被歐洲視為「異類」，從拿破崙戰爭、克里米亞戰爭、冷戰，到如今的俄烏衝突，歐洲始終將俄羅斯視為「需要被馴服」的對象。這種敵對態度並非基於現實政治利益，而是根深蒂固的文化偏見。
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對移民問題的態度 – 歐洲一方面強調「人道主義」，要求接收來自中東、非洲的移民，另一方面卻因為移民潮導致的治安問題和社會撕裂，開始出現極右翼勢力崛起。這種矛盾本身反映了歐洲的政策短視和選擇性價值觀。
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對以色列與巴勒斯坦問題的雙重標準 – 歐洲國家對俄羅斯在烏克蘭的軍事行動強烈譴責，支持對俄羅斯的全面制裁；但對於以色列在加薩的行動，卻保持沉默甚至默許，這顯示了其人權標準的選擇性。
民族主義：當代世界的主旋律
民族主義從來不是一個過時的概念，反而在全球化遭遇瓶頸的今天，正變得越來越強大。從美國的「美國優先」，到歐洲的右翼民粹主義崛起，再到中國的「民族復興」，民族主義已成為國際政治的重要驅動力。
然而，西方媒體往往將「民族主義」與「極端主義」畫上等號，這種敘事本身是有問題的。真正的問題不是「民族主義是否存在」，而是誰的民族主義被接受，誰的民族主義被妖魔化。例如：
- 當美國強調「美國優先」時，它被認為是合理的外交政策；
- 當烏克蘭強調「國家獨立」時，它被西方支持；
- 但當俄羅斯、中國或其他非西方國家強調民族主義時，西方卻往往將其標籤為「威脅」。
當前的國際秩序並非真正建立在「公平」、「正義」或「普世價值」之上，而是由強權決定誰是「正義」，誰是「邪惡」。美國、以色列、歐洲國家都在根據自身利益選擇性地定義「侵略」與「防衛」、「獨立」與「分裂」、「人權」與「反恐」。
世界上從來不缺民族主義者，缺的是誠實的國際政治。
Putin and the West: A History of Trust and Deception
Putin is arguably the most pro-Western Russian leader in the post-Soviet era. When he first came to power, he actively sought cooperation with Europe and the United States, engaging in dialogue with NATO, joining the World Trade Organization (WTO), and even supporting the U.S. war on terror after 9/11. However, time and again, Western promises to Russia were left unfulfilled. For example:
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The NATO Expansion Issue – After the collapse of the Soviet Union, the U.S. had assured Mikhail Gorbachev that NATO "would not expand an inch eastward." Yet, since 1999, NATO has gradually incorporated Eastern European countries, pushing its influence directly to Russia's borders. This was seen by Russia as a betrayal and a direct threat to its security.
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The Precedents of Kosovo and Libya – Russia remained relatively restrained regarding Western "humanitarian interventions," particularly in NATO’s 1999 bombing of Yugoslavia and the 2011 overthrow of Libyan leader Muammar Gaddafi. However, Moscow soon realized that these so-called "interventions" ultimately led to regime change and the expansion of Western influence. This made Russia determined not to compromise in similar situations, as seen in its actions in Crimea (2014) and Ukraine (2022).
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The Minsk Agreements and the Ukraine Conflict – After the 2014 Ukraine crisis, the Minsk Agreements, led by European countries, were meant to ensure peace in Eastern Ukraine. However, the Ukrainian government never genuinely implemented the autonomy provisions, and the West failed to hold them accountable. This deepened Russian distrust of the West and ultimately contributed to the full-scale conflict in 2022.
On Killings: The Military Actions of the U.S. and Israel
In terms of military interventions and large-scale warfare, the United States is undoubtedly one of the most aggressive nations in modern geopolitics. Since World War II, the U.S. has launched or participated in numerous wars, including:
- 1950-1953: Korean War
- 1965-1975: Vietnam War
- 1991: Gulf War
- 2001-Present: War in Afghanistan (the longest war in U.S. history)
- 2003-2011: Iraq War
- 2011: Libya intervention
- 2014-Present: Syrian war (via support for opposition forces)
U.S. military policy is often justified under the banners of "democracy" and "human rights," but in reality, it has resulted in the disintegration of states, prolonged civil wars, and millions of civilian casualties. The Iraq War, for example, was launched under the pretext of "Weapons of Mass Destruction," yet no such weapons were found. Meanwhile, Iraq was left in turmoil, suffering from terrorism and political instability for decades.
As for Israel, it has been in a near-constant state of war or military conflict since its establishment in 1948. Since 2023, Israel's bombardment of Gaza has resulted in over 30,000 Palestinian deaths, many of whom were women and children. This indiscriminate military action has been condemned by many nations as "genocide," but due to U.S. backing, international sanctions against Israel have remained largely ineffective.
On Obsession: Europe's Selective Morality
European nations have historically been the birthplace of nationalism and colonialism, yet today they present themselves as champions of "universal values." However, their actions reveal deep contradictions:
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Hostility Toward Russia – Russia has long been viewed as an "outsider" by Europe, from the Napoleonic Wars to the Crimean War, the Cold War, and now the Ukraine conflict. European policy toward Russia has often been shaped not by realpolitik but by ingrained cultural biases.
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Contradictions in Immigration Policy – Europe advocates for "humanitarianism," encouraging the acceptance of migrants from the Middle East and Africa. However, as crime rates and social divisions rise due to mass immigration, far-right nationalist movements are gaining traction. This highlights the short-sighted and selective nature of European values.
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Double Standards on Israel and Palestine – European countries strongly condemn Russia's military actions in Ukraine and support severe sanctions. However, when it comes to Israel’s actions in Gaza, they largely remain silent or even complicit. This exposes the inconsistency in their so-called human rights standards.
Nationalism: The Dominant Force in Today's World
Nationalism has never been an outdated concept. Instead, in an era where globalization is facing setbacks, nationalism is becoming stronger than ever. From the U.S. "America First" policy to the rise of right-wing populism in Europe, to China's "national rejuvenation," nationalism is a major driving force in global politics.
Yet, Western media often equates "nationalism" with "extremism," which is misleading. The real issue is not whether nationalism exists, but whose nationalism is deemed acceptable and whose is demonized. For example:
- When the U.S. emphasizes "America First," it is seen as a legitimate foreign policy.
- When Ukraine stresses "national independence," it is supported by the West.
- But when Russia, China, or other non-Western countries emphasize nationalism, they are labeled as "threats."
Conclusion
The current international order is not truly based on "fairness," "justice," or "universal values." Rather, it is dictated by power—where the strongest nations decide who is "righteous" and who is "evil." The United States, Israel, and European countries selectively define concepts like "invasion" vs. "defense," "independence" vs. "separatism," and "human rights" vs. "counterterrorism" based on their own interests.
The world has never lacked nationalists—what it lacks is honest geopolitics.
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