Strategists admit West is goading China into war
By Nury Vittachi and Phill Hynes https://agonyofsorrow.pixnet.net/blog/post/45497459
Dec 1, 2021
https://johnmenadue.com/strategists-admit-west-is-goading-china-into-war/
US military experts say a war over Taiwan is desirable, because Asia’s growth to become world’s economic heartland has become unstoppable.
Yes, we want war. But just a small one, please, followed by a quick surrender. The United States is diligently working with Australia and the UK to goad China into what they hope will be a limited war over Taiwan, according to military strategists. By continually poking at the giant developing nation, the aim is to force it to fire the first bullet — and then use that to paint China as the protagonist, the bully that the rest of the world must unite against.
To prepare for this, the partners in the scheme are teaming up. Rather like the “coalition of the willing” in the Iraq War 2.0, the US is pushing for another misadventure, this time through a coalition of the coerced.
美國軍事專家表示，針對台灣的戰爭是可取的，因為亞洲成為世界經濟中心的增長已經勢不可擋。
是的，我們想要戰爭。 但只要一個小的，隨之而來的是快速投降。 軍事戰略家表示，美國正在與澳大利亞和英國努力合作，促使中國在台灣問題上進行一場有限的戰爭。 通過不斷地攻擊這個巨大的發展中國家，目的是迫使它發射第一顆子彈，然後用它來把中國抹黑成主角，一個讓世界其他國家必須聯合起來對抗惡霸。
為了為此做好準備，這個計劃的合作夥伴正在聯手。 就像伊拉克戰爭2.0中的“自願聯盟”一樣，美國正在推動另一場災難，這次是通過被迫聯盟。
Media’s role
The Western media is playing a key role in this process.
1) The media is trivializing or turning a blind eye to an increasingly long series of clearly aggressive moves by the United States, including:
- Parking warships on China’s doorstep;
- Holding Naval sailing regattas in the Taiwan Straits;
- Landing senior US officials on Taiwanese soil in military planes;
- Creating an artificial “Taiwanese air space” zone and falsely alleging “incursions” or “violations” of it;
- Secretly providing military trainers on the island while lying about it;
- Inviting Taiwan to a summit on democracy as if it were a nation;
- And numerous other military and diplomatic departures from status quo agreements.
2) The media is painting China’s knee-jerk and entirely predictable responses that it “will not stand for attempts to promote Taiwan independence” as evidence of shocking new acts of “increasing aggression”, while the truth is that all China-watchers know they are the same statements they have issued for decades, often in virtually the same words.
3) The media is pushing exaggerations and misinformation about the “death of Hong Kong”, the “genocide of Xinjiang”, the “imminent invasion of Australia” and so on.
媒體的角色
西方媒體在這一過程中發揮著關鍵作用。
1）媒體對美國一系列越來越長的明顯侵略性舉動輕描淡寫或視而不見，包括：
- 把軍艦停在中國家門口；
- 在台灣海峽舉辦海軍帆船賽；
- 用軍用飛機運載美國高級官員降落在台灣領土上；
- 人為設立“台灣領空”區並謊稱“入侵”或“侵犯”該地區；
- 一邊撒謊一邊秘密在島上提供軍事訓練員；
- 邀請台灣像一個國家一樣參加民主峰會；
- 還有許多其他軍事和外交上背離現狀協議的行為。
2) 媒體將中國下意識地、完全可以預見的反應描繪成“不會容忍推動台灣獨立的企圖”，作為令人震驚的新的“日益侵略”行為的證據，而事實是，所有中國觀察人士都知道，這些聲明與他們幾十年來發表的聲明是一樣的，而且往往用的是幾乎相同的措辭。
3）媒體散佈關於“香港之死”、“新疆種族滅絕”、“澳大利亞即將入侵”等的誇大和錯誤信息。
Asia as centre of the world
Why are the Western powers doing this? They certainly want to destabilise China and set the country’s development and positioning in the world back a few decades. But that’s just part of a larger goal. They feel the need to do this primarily because the Western powers have recognized that Asia will soon be the centre of global economic power.
Nothing will stop that happening.
This means that time is running out to ensure that Asia is dominated and controlled by America and its allies on the other side of the world, instead of by Asians themselves, working together as neighbours.
Furthermore, the outgoing world leaders need the incoming powers to know their place in the “International Rules-Based Order” under the stewardship of the drafters of these rules. Western liberal democracy must retain its primacy, and Asia’s consultative democracies dismissed as “autocracies”, or “authoritarian”/“totalitarian” regimes.
亞洲作為世界的中心
西方列強為何這麼做？ 他們當然想破壞中國的穩定，讓中國的發展和在世界上的地位倒退幾十年。 但這只是更大目標的一部分。 他們覺得有必要這樣做，主要是因為西方列強已經認識到亞洲很快將成為全球經濟力量的中心。
沒有什麼可以阻止這種情況的發生。
這意味著確保亞洲由美國及其在世界另一端的盟友所主導和控制-- 而不是由亞洲人自己作主、與鄰國共同合作以及主導和控制-- 的時間已經不多了。
此外，即將下台的世界領導者需要新任大國了解自己在這些規則起草者管理下的“基於規則的國際秩序”中的地位。 西方自由民主必須保持其首要地位，而亞洲的協商民主國家則被視為“獨裁國家”或“獨裁”/“極權”政權。
Preparing the world
The media has been preparing the world for the conflict for years. America’s hawks put huge sums of time and money into financing dissent in Asia and partnering with the Western media to create the impression that the people of Hong Kong, Xinjiang, Tibet and Taiwan, want independence from mainland China — although surveys overwhelmingly show that this is the opposite of the truth.
But these imaginary “cries for independence” are necessary for the next stage in the process: the pushing of China into what can only be described as a deluded and limited war over Taiwan; one aim being to attain the larger objectives of undermining both China and ASEAN.
The war or “coming conflict” with China has been discussed in multiple forums and publications, not least of which is a new book by Elbridge Colby, one of the writers of the US National Defense Strategy. It argues that escalating Taiwan tensions into a conflict gives America a chance at winning, unlike a Cold War arms race.
為世界做好準備
多年來，媒體一直在讓世界為這場衝突做好準備。 美國鷹派投入大量時間和金錢資助亞洲異見人士，並與西方媒體合作，營造出香港、新疆、西藏和台灣人民希望從中國大陸獨立的印象——儘管絕大多數調查顯示事實與事實相反。
但這些想像中的“獨立呼聲”對於這一進程的下一階段是必要的：將中國推入一場只能被描述為一場欺騙性的、有限的台灣戰爭； 其目的之一是實現破壞中國和東盟的更大目標。
多個論壇和出版物都討論了與中國的戰爭或“即將發生的衝突”，其中最重要的是《美國國防戰略》作者之一埃爾布里奇·科爾比的新書。 它認為，與冷戰時期的軍備競賽不同，將台灣緊張局勢升級為衝突會給美國帶來獲勝的機會。
Arms race won’t work
An arms race would eventually be won by China, which is on its way to being richer and stronger than America, Colby points out. And “the economic costs could be crippling, seriously stressing the US economy, the ultimate source of America’s military strength”.
Instead, the US can push China into a limited conflict over Taiwan, with the media painting China as the bully and the US as the white knight. Done right, the skirmish would unite the rest of the world’s countries against China and on to the American side.
Partners in the media have already accomplished a lot of this work by painting Xinjiang and Hong Kong as places wrecked by China, and suggesting they are filled with Betsy-waving populations desperate for a United States model of governance.
This strategy is receiving significant interest and or support from other US hawks.
“China must be provoked into initiating any escalation of the conflict, so that it will always appear the aggressor,” writes defence journalist Aris Roussinos, summarising the Colby strategy.
軍備競賽不會奏效
科爾比指出，軍備競賽最終將由中國贏得，中國正在變得比美國更富裕、更強大。 而且“經濟成本可能會造成嚴重損失，嚴重影響美國經濟，而美國經濟是美國軍事力量的最終來源”。
相反，美國可以將中國推入一場有限的台灣衝突，媒體將中國描繪成惡霸，將美國描繪成白衣騎士。 如果處理得當，這場小衝突將使世界其他國家聯合起來反對中國並站在美國一邊。
媒體合作夥伴已經完成了大部分工作，將新疆和香港描繪成被中國破壞的地方，並暗示這些地方充滿了渴望美國治理模式的高舉美國旗幟的民眾。
這一戰略得到了其他美國鷹派的極大興趣和/或支持。
國防記者阿里斯·魯西諾斯（Aris Roussinos）在總結科爾比戰略時寫道：“必須激怒中國，讓衝突升級，這樣它就永遠被視為侵略者。”
People will die
But won’t there be Taiwanese casualties? Yes. China “must be permitted to strike as indiscriminately as possible,” in this scenario. “Colby further urges the US not to provide potential civilian targets with air defences, reasoning that collateral damage will whip up the public anger against China necessary to winning a war,” Roussinos adds.
In other words, deaths of Taiwan citizens (the “collateral damage” he mentions) would be a public relations coup for the US side.
“Forcing China to escalate could be in our [US] interests,” Roussinos points out. (One wonders if this scenario has received attention from the walking elements of “collateral damage” in Taiwan.)
人們會死
但不會有台灣人傷亡嗎？ 是的。 在這種情況下，中國“必須被允許盡可能不分皂白地進行打擊”。 魯西諾斯補充道：“科爾比進一步敦促美國不要為潛在的平民目標提供防空系統，因為附帶損害將激起公眾對中國的憤怒，而這是贏得戰爭所必需的。”
換句話說，台灣公民的死亡（他提到的“附帶損害”）對美方來說將是一場公關妙計。
“迫使中國升級可能符合我們（美國）的利益，”魯西諾斯指出。 （人們想知道這種情況是否引起了台灣“附帶損害”的行走因素的關注。）
Trump’s defence strategist
Although Colby’s book, The Strategy of Denial, has just been published, it’s clear that the thinking behind it has been circulating in US administration clusters for some years. Colby was a key writer of Donald Trump’s national defence strategy in 2018.
This approach, when originally written, recommended pulling American allies like Japan and India into the US team to contain China, and to sign up Australia too, as well as Vietnam and other neighbours.
Clearly we can see concerted action on all these fronts this year.
特朗普的國防戰略家
儘管科爾比的《拒絕策略》一書剛剛出版，但很明顯，其背後的思想已經在美國政府群體中流傳多年。 科爾比是唐納德·特朗普 2018 年國防戰略的主要撰稿人。
該方案最初提出時建議將日本和印度等美國盟友拉入美國遏制中國的陣營，並讓澳大利亞、越南和其他鄰國也加入進來。
顯然，我們今年可以看到在所有這些方面採取協調一致的行動。
Salami slicing
While the Western media portrays China as the aggressor, people with a deeper understanding of international affairs can see what’s really happening over Taiwan.
“The US has placed tripwires in the form of deployment of special forces, obfuscating the ‘red line’,” said commentator M. K. Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat.
The long string of US provocations are a “salami slicing” strategy, some observers say. “Salami tactics are an appealing option for expansionist actors like NATO, which pursues limited and repetitive expansions to gradually create new realities on the ground,” argues Glenn Diesen, professor at the University of South-Eastern Norway.
“Such tactics avoid rapid escalation and mute opposition from adversaries and allies alike, as complaints can be ridiculed and the response from opponents denounced as disproportionate.”
切香腸策略
雖然西方媒體將中國描繪成侵略者，但對國際事務有更深入了解的人可以看到台灣到底發生了什麼。
印度前外交官、評論員 M. K. 巴德拉庫馬爾 (M. K. Bhadrakumar) 表示：“美國以部署特種部隊的形式設置了絆網，混淆了‘紅線’。”
一些觀察人士稱，美國一連串的挑釁行為是一種“切香腸”策略。 挪威東南大學教授格倫·迪森認為，“切香腸戰術對於北約這樣的擴張主義行為體來說是一個有吸引力的選擇，北約追求有限和重複的擴張，以逐步在當地創造新的現實。”
“這種策略可以避免局勢迅速升級，並壓制對手和盟友的反對，因為抱怨可能會被嘲笑，對手的反應可能會被指責為不相稱。”
Warmongering?
One could easily argue that this type of strategy could be construed as a right-wing, warmongering plan.
That’s certainly true, and there are many echoes of the self-righteous militaristic strutting that led to lengthy disasters of wars in Iraq and Afghanistan—the surviving victims of which are still suffering today.
The frightening thing is that the present attempt to goad China into war has bi-partisan support in the world’s wealthiest, most powerful country.
好戰？
人們很容易認為這種戰略可以被解釋為右翼的好戰計劃。
這確實是事實，而且自以為是的軍國主義招致了許多人的共鳴，這些軍國主義導致了伊拉克和阿富汗戰爭的長期災難——倖存的受害者至今仍在遭受痛苦。
可怕的是，目前煽動中國發動戰爭的企圖得到了這個世界上最富有、最強大的國家兩黨的支持。
https://asiatimes.com/2021/11/us-stance-on-ukraine-taiwan-uniting-china-russia/
By M. K. Bhadrakumar, a former Indian diplomat in 2021.
Taiwan is lucky. According to American government's original plan, we were supposted to become American's cannon fodder before Ukraine.
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