https://reurl.cc/XjE29j

1. 這次俄烏衝突打的不僅是一般的戰爭,還是輿論戰、金融戰,這也是為什麼美國要築起網路的"牆",尤其是在歐洲地區。

2. 美國想要拉幫結派,卻發現影響力大不如前。要求全球抵制俄羅斯,響應的卻只有北美和歐洲,以及日韓等美國的小弟。印度、巴基斯坦甚至高調反對制裁俄羅斯。

3. 歷史上,俄國侵略過中國好幾次,中俄之間的關係並不是西方世界想像的那麼親密。相反的,中國隨時防備著俄國。普丁是個親西方的總統,幾度想要加入北約,但是都被拒絕。北約一再拒絕俄國加入,並且不斷東擴,讓俄國備感威脅。拒絕俄國加入,就是把俄國推出西方陣營,俄國不得不向東方靠攏。

4. 關於對俄國制裁,美國只一再要求中國,卻無視高調挺俄的印度。中國對於俄烏糾紛不選邊站,美國硬要逼迫中國制裁俄羅斯,否則要對中國採取二級制裁。印度根本不理會美國,高調支持俄羅斯,美國卻不懲罰制裁印度,因為他們還需要印度來制衡他們的”敵人” – 中國。美國可能沒想到,印度與俄國的關係之深,遠超過中俄之間。

5. 中國之所以變成美國的”敵人”,不是因為它做了甚麼不對的事,純粹是因為它強大了,威脅到美國霸主的地位。

6. 沒收俄國平民的資產,是對資本主義的一大打擊,也讓全球懷疑美元與歐元的可靠性。瑞士銀行的信任度大打折扣,地位不保,富豪存款將會移轉到其他地方。SWIFT的制裁,會讓各國設法減少對SWIFT的依賴。美元短多長空,日後用美元結算會減少。

7. 歐洲能源、原料成本大漲,工業競爭力會更加下降,歐洲的情況很令人擔憂。

這場戰爭是一個轉捩點,東升西降的態勢很明顯。美國與歐洲都會面臨嚴峻挑戰,尤其是歐洲。如果歐洲還是傻傻地追隨美國,衰退的速度會非常快。

 

1. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is not only a general war, but also a public opinion war and a financial war. This is why the United States has to build a "wall" of internet, especially in Europe.

2. The United States calls for countries around the world to boycott Russia. Obviously its influence is not as strong as it used to be. Only North America and Europe, as well as few followers of the United States such as Japan and South Korea, responded. India and Pakistan even spoke out against sanctions against Russia.

 

3. In history, Russia has invaded China several times, and the relationship between China and Russia is not as close as the Western world thinks. On the contrary, China is always on guard against Russia. Vladmir Putin is actually a pro-Western president. He tried several times to join NATO, but was repeatedly rejected. At the meantime, NATO continuously expands eastward. It like a provocation and makes Russia feel threatened. What NATO has done is pushing Russia away from the Western world and Russia is obligated to move closer to the East.

 

4. Regarding the sanctions against Russia, the United States has only repeatedly demanded China to do it, but they ignored India, the pro-Russian country which support Russia firmly. China doesn’t want to take sides in the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the United States insists on forcing China to sanction Russia, otherwise it will impose secondary sanctions on China. India completely ignores the US and supports Russia in a high profile, but the US does not blame India. Why? because they also need India to check and balance their "enemy" - China. The United States may not have imagined that the relationship between India and Russia is far deeper than that between China and Russia.

 

5. The reason why China has become an "enemy" of the United States is not because it has done anything wrong, but purely because it becomes more and more powerful and threatens the status of “American hegemony”.

 

6. The confiscation of the assets of Russian civilians is a blow to capitalism and casts doubt on the reliability of the dollar and euro. People's trust in Swiss banks drops. The rich's deposits will be transferred elsewhere. SWIFT is not so trustworthy as before. U.S. dollars will become weaker in the long run. In the future, settlement in U.S. dollars will decrease, and the U.S. dollar will depreciate.

 

7. The cost of energy and raw materials in Europe has risen sharply, and the industrial competitiveness will reduced. The situation in Europe is very worrying.

 

This war is a turning point, and the trend of rising in the east and falling in the west is more and more obvious. Both the United States and Europe face serious challenges, especially Europe. If Europe is still following the US without its own idea, the recession of Europe will be fast.

 

註:圖片為2014克里米亞事件後制裁俄羅斯的國家,不過2022這次的參與國家也差不多這樣

Sanctions_2014_Russia2.svg.png

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